908
FXUS63 KOAX 171114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into
  Saturday. There are additional spotty rain chances Sunday into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

The widescale pattern this morning displays a positively tilted upper
level trough over the Great Lakes region with a high amplitude ridge
over the western CONUS. This places much of the region in
northwesterly upper level flow, bringing an extended period of cool
temperatures. Patchy fog development is possible this morning,
especially in northeast Nebraska, yet model soundings are suggesting
that winds near the surface may be just enough to keep the fog away.

Surface high pressure is expected to build into the area today,
bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper
70s/low 80s. High temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees below the
climatological average (upper 80s) for mid July. A refreshing change
from the excessive heat that kicked off the week. Low temperatures
overnight will reach the mid-50`s, making it the perfect night to
air out the house with some windows open. These low temperatures are
also an approximate 10 degrees below our average of the upper 60s.
Similar calm and clear conditions will continue into Thursday with
highs in the low 80s and lows near 60.

Long Term (Friday through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough impinging the region will bring the next chance
of widespread precipitation to the area Friday evening into
Saturday. There is still plenty of time to work out the details in
terms of severe weather potential. However, current guidance is
keeping the best instability in western Nebraska with 500-1000 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear making its way into our
westernmost counties. CSU machine learning guidance also highlights
western Nebraska for severe weather potential. Current PoPs of 60 to
80 percent are in place for Friday night. Additional PoPs of 20 to
40 percent continue into the weekend as an upper level cutoff low
spins over IA/MO. Precipitation chances will certainly be something
to keep an eye on this weekend for those with outdoor plans.

Temperatures through the weekend are expected to stay in the cool
mid 70`s, with Saturday struggling to hit 75. Below average
temperatures will continue into the start of next work week.
Additional low end precipitation chances will continue into Monday
as a deep upper level trough remains over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours, with winds starting out at less than 5 kts from the
north, gradually turning northeasterly with increased wind
speeds to around 8 kts during the afternoon hours. A shallow
field of low clouds is likely to develop this afternoon as well,
and should range from FL040 to FL060, dissipating by 01z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen