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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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683 FXUS66 KMTR 060856 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 156 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 103 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Day 5 of the heat wave and triple digit temperatures will return to inland areas this afternoon. A slight cool down begins Sunday, but hot weather will continue through next week. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 103 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A few daily records will likely fall this afternoon as the second peak of this heat wave continues. Some inland areas will be in the triple digits including Santa Rosa (101), Livermore (106), and King City (105). Coastal areas will continue to enjoy nature`s air conditioning as the marine layer fills up with stratus this morning. These coastal clouds will come and go over the weekend, but the cooler weather will remain. Not much change to the short term forecast tonight as Saturday continues to look like one of the hotter days in this prolonged heat wave. The 850 mb temperature (measured at 27.5C at 00Z) will likely peak today, with both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means near 30C at 07/00Z. That benchmark has only been hit 6 times out of roughly 56,000 weather balloon observations going gback to 1948. There`s even an outside chance (5% or so) that the all-time record of 31C will be hit. Either way, we are continuing to deal with historic heat, especially at higher elevations. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 103 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There is a little bit of good news in the long term forecast. The strong, persistent ridge will finally slide east, with the axis crossing California on Sunday. This will bring marginally cooler temperatures. Inland areas will trade low 100s for mid to upper 90s. Those slightly more mild conditions will then persist through next week. I know everyone is looking for the end of this heat wave, but the best we are going to get is a minor improvement. While there won`t be many 100 degree thermometers outside of southern Monterey and San Benito Counties (including Pinnacles Nat`l Park), we are still way above seasonal averages. In the short term section I mentioned the chance for 30C 850 temps today. While we are glad to see that will start to come down next week, it likely won`t drop below 24C until next weekend. 24C is certainly better than 30C, but it`s still in the top 10% for this time of year. So when will the heat wave actually end? There is some indication that a cold front is possible next Friday. It`s still early, and the models don`t yet agree, but there is hope. This has been a long heat wave, and there is still much more to come. Please continue to taking the following precautions to keep yourself, family, friends and pets safe from the heat: -Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm. -Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC and drink cool water. -Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke! Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat Stroke. -Wear a lifejacket, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off. Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful. -Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath. -Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car. -Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR at all stations with MVFR/IFR conditions to return at OAK, MRY, and SNS overnight. Guidance indicates some low clouds may reach STS and APC but confidence remains too low to include in TAF. Onshore flow is expected to persist through the period with winds becoming light and, at times, variable overnight. Haze and smoke may be visible from terminals, but it is not expected to result in a reduction in flight category. Vicinity of SFO...VFR to persist through the TAF period. Five minute observations (as of 10PM) show a general weakening trend for winds with chances for stronger gusts (greater than 20 knots) fully diminishing by midnight. Moderate onshore flow continues overnight before gusty winds up to 23 knots returns late tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR becoming IFR overnight. Onshore flow continues through the TAF period with light, at times, variable winds overnight becoming more moderate during the day. High confidence in LIFR CIGs and reduced visibility developing overnight as the marine layer remains compressed below 1000 feet. Improved conditions will return by mid-morning at both MRY and SNS. Confidence is low that fog will develop but will continue to monitor given persistence and highly compressed marine layer. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High pressure over the Pacific Ocean will be the dominating feature through the period. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will prevail through the period. Significant wave heights will build to 10-12 feet beginning Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 940 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains, East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains until 9 PM Saturday. Red Flag Warnings are also in effect for the Santa Lucia Mountains, San Benito County, and the Southern Salinas Valley until 9 PM Saturday as well Despite easing surface winds, this prolonged heat wave will continue to bring very low RH that will cure and dry the fuels. ERC values are exceeding or approaching the max moving average for a number of regions. Conditions are dangerous, and we urge extreme caution. Please rethink the use of any fireworks this year, including the safe and sane, or even those seemingly- innocuous sparklers and pop-its. Perhaps consider not lighting them off at all this year, and instead enjoy a professional display in your community, or even on TV. Its not worth the risk. Don`t Be the Spark! && .BEACHES... Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures. Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn`t alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and follow their instructions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-512- 515>518. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ508-528-529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea