133
FXUS66 KMTR 072311
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
411 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1236 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Day 6 of the inland heat wave. The peak of the event is finally
behind us and some minor relief is on the way this week before a
more substantial cool-down next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Twenty-four hour temperature trends are a welcomed indication that
we`re beginning to emerge from the heat wave. However, we have kept
the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories intact because we`re
not out of the woods yet. Todays highs will still be well into the
90s and low-100s across the interior and elevated locations, along
with 80s and 90s in lower lying areas as you get closer to the
coast. The near coast environment is relatively normal, and
continues to offer the best chance at relief from the heat, as the
marine boundary layer has begun to bounce back behind the ridge axis
that has shifted to the east. Temperatures take another gradual step
lower tomorrow, but will still be well above normal outside of the
coastal environment. The forecast trends have been cooler, but
todays heat is still dangerously high and have decided to maintain
consistent messaging of that threat, with the overnight crew or
tomorrow`s day shift reassessing impacts across our area. Please
read the following to limit your risks to the heat wave:

Heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the United States.
Unfortunately lives will be lost during this heat wave. Follow these
tips to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your animals.

-Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm.
-Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but
if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade  or AC
and drink cool water.
-Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke!
Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical
professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat
Stroke.
-Wear a lifejacket, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions
before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off.
Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can
turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful.
-Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and
are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath.
-Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car.
-Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Although the end of the heat wave may be in sight, it is by no means
the end of the above normal temperatures expected through the work
week. We currently have the Excessive Heat Warning out until
Wednesday night (same for locations under the Heat Advisory).
However, the forecast for the progress of the upper level ridge
responsible for all the heat has been gradually shifting more south
than east, likely in response to how Beryl has taken a turn north
helping to block the ridges eastward momentum. As a result,
temperatures across our eastern interior, especially the
south/southeast portions of our interior have jumped up for Thursday
and Friday. Ultimately there`s lots of uncertainty beyond midweek,
wrt to how the dome of high pressure reorganizes over the Four
Corners region in the wake of the remnants of Beryl exiting off the
East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with stratus hugging the coastline.
High confidence in terminals being impacted by LIFR/IFR
ceilings/visibility overnight with the exception of LVK, SFO, and
SJC. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Haze and
smoke may be visible from terminals, but it is not expected to
result in a reduction in flight category.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Winds will
prevail out of the west through the TAF period. Moderate confidence
in the terminal remaining VFR through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds will prevail out of the
west for MRY and out of the west/northwest for SNS through the TAF
period. High confidence in the return of LIFR ceilings and reduced
visibility to both terminals tonight. VFR is expected to prevail at
both terminals by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 410 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Gentle to moderate northwest winds persisting into the early work
week over the outer coastal waters. Light southerly winds over the
inner waters becoming northwesterly tonight. Fresh to the
occasional strong gusts will briefly develop over the northern
outer coastal waters Monday before diminishing into Tuesday.
Widespread fresh  to strong northwest winds return across the
coastal waters by mid- week. Significant wave heights will build
to 10-14 feet in the  outer waters beginning Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ502>504-
     506-510-512>518.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ508-528.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea