840
FXUS65 KMSO 151857
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1257 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across central Idaho
this afternoon, and will continue to move north and eastward
through the evening. In doing so, thunderstorm coverage and
intensity will increase into west central and southwest Montana,
and could produce wind speeds of 50 mph, hail, and heavy downpours
in addition to lightning. Storms in the aforementioned areas will
likely begin around 4pm MDT and continue through sunset.

Storms will then track northward into the late evening and
overnight hours, impacting northwest Montana. Because of how late
these storms are expected here, the threat for strong winds and
hail will diminish the closer to sunset it becomes. The greatest
threat from storms for northwest Montana through Friday morning
will be heavy rainfall, with rain totals up to 0.75" expected
through Friday afternoon.

Conditions will clear from south to north as this wave of moisture
and energy exits north of the Canadian border and east of the
Divide. As a result, Friday will see steadily clearing conditions,
with perhaps a few stray thundershowers along the northernmost
fringe of northwest Montana near the Canadian border Friday
afternoon.

Saturday through early next week will see the re-amplification of
high pressure across the Northern Rockies. This will result in
drying and warming conditions, with high temperatures approaching
or cresting the 90 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. The apex of
the ridge will then gradually shift to the east, putting the
Northern Rockies into unstable southwesterly flow, bringing the
return of afternoon and evening showers through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms will impact terminals KSMN, KGIC, KBTM,
and KMSO from roughly 15/2000Z through 16/0200Z, with gusty winds
to 45 knots possible, along with hail, heavy downpours, and
lightning during this time. Stronger gusts to 50 knots may be
possible at KBTM around 16/0000Z. KGPI will see thunderstorms
after 16/0200Z, but with a lesser potential for such strong winds
and hail, though lightning and heavy rain is most likely through
16/1000Z, with rain lingering thereafter into mid-Friday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&

$$