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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
840 FXUS65 KMSO 151857 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1257 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across central Idaho this afternoon, and will continue to move north and eastward through the evening. In doing so, thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase into west central and southwest Montana, and could produce wind speeds of 50 mph, hail, and heavy downpours in addition to lightning. Storms in the aforementioned areas will likely begin around 4pm MDT and continue through sunset. Storms will then track northward into the late evening and overnight hours, impacting northwest Montana. Because of how late these storms are expected here, the threat for strong winds and hail will diminish the closer to sunset it becomes. The greatest threat from storms for northwest Montana through Friday morning will be heavy rainfall, with rain totals up to 0.75" expected through Friday afternoon. Conditions will clear from south to north as this wave of moisture and energy exits north of the Canadian border and east of the Divide. As a result, Friday will see steadily clearing conditions, with perhaps a few stray thundershowers along the northernmost fringe of northwest Montana near the Canadian border Friday afternoon. Saturday through early next week will see the re-amplification of high pressure across the Northern Rockies. This will result in drying and warming conditions, with high temperatures approaching or cresting the 90 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. The apex of the ridge will then gradually shift to the east, putting the Northern Rockies into unstable southwesterly flow, bringing the return of afternoon and evening showers through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms will impact terminals KSMN, KGIC, KBTM, and KMSO from roughly 15/2000Z through 16/0200Z, with gusty winds to 45 knots possible, along with hail, heavy downpours, and lightning during this time. Stronger gusts to 50 knots may be possible at KBTM around 16/0000Z. KGPI will see thunderstorms after 16/0200Z, but with a lesser potential for such strong winds and hail, though lightning and heavy rain is most likely through 16/1000Z, with rain lingering thereafter into mid-Friday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$