223
FXUS64 KMRX 110613
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
213 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Message:

Slightly warmer temperatures expected today

Discussion:

Currently a cool morning is in store with the lower dew points and
surface high aiding the radiational cooling effect. Temperatures are
dropping into the 60s across much of the eastern Tennessee Valley.
We should see some patchy fog, especially across northeast Tennesee
and southwest Virginia where the temperatures will drop the closest
to the dew points. Once the sun rises we`ll see a rebound in
temperatures fairly quickly with the drier air in place and daytime
highs are expected to run a few degrees higher than what we
experienced yesterday. Overall expect light winds, mostly sunny
skies, and a fairly pleasant day weather-wise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warming temperatures this weekend but humidity will stay low with
dew points in the 60s. Temperatures early next week to approach
record highs.

2. Low afternoon chance of showers or thunderstorms in the
mountains. Dry weather likely to persist for most.

3. Tuesday and Wednesday low rain chances may return to the
Tennessee Valley.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, the trough over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
will weaken late Friday. A broad trough will remain over the Great
Lakes and Northeast through the weekend as a ridge out west moves
into the Great Plains by Monday. A weak ridge (an extension of the
Bermuda-Azores High) will be over the Southeast. At the surface, a
weak pressure gradient is in place.

Temps will rebound Friday and Saturday. Hot weather is expected this
weekend with highs in the 90s. Early next week highs may approach
records. The good news is that humidity will be fairly low with dew
points in the 60s expected to continue through at least this weekend
due to westerly surface winds and mostly sunny skies allowing for
good mixing conditions. Early next week highs will approach 100
degrees in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valleys. Heat indices
may be close to advisory criteria (105) by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Unfortunately, rain chances are very low for most locations with the
best chances in the East Tennessee Mountains and SW North Carolina
due to intense surface heating of south facing slopes. By Tuesday or
Wednesday, low rain chances may return to the Valley if a system is
able to make it this far south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light fog possible near the KTRI airport before sunrise with the
lower overnight temperatures expected. Outside of any fog light
winds and VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  71  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  64  92  66 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...