461
FXUS63 KMQT 021939
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
339 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above normal temperatures persist through midweek, then
hot and humid conditions return Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible in the afternoon and
evening of Friday, the Fourth of July, then better chances for
showers and storms return Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A compact mid/upper level low analyzed near James Bay is sending
broader troughing into the Great Lakes this afternoon. An associated
cold front is analyzed over far northern MN to northern Lake
Superior. Ahead of it, a subtle embedded shortwave is dropping
through the UP/northern WI this afternoon. This has kicked off some
spotty showers and storms across northern WI, but nothing has been
able to pop over the Upper Peninsula so far today - perhaps
unsurprising, given weak forcing, cloudy skies and limited MLCAPE.
Still, will allow for the potential for some storms to at least
graze the south-central UP through the rest of the daytime hours.

Also of note is the wildfire smoke that has been able to spread into
the Great Lakes, and has even been able to reach the surface across
much of the UP. This has resulted in reductions in air quality, as
well as some drops in visibility where smoke is thickest. As the
front passes through this evening, near-surface smoke is expected to
lift, but NW flow aloft will leave us with some connection to those
upstream wildfires and potentially keep in hazy skies at least
through tonight. Otherwise, look for calm conditions with
temperatures falling back into the 50s.

Ridging across the central CONUS will introduce high pressure atop
the Great Lakes region Thursday, keeping sunny skies and tranquil
weather in the forecast. Temperatures peak in the upper 70s and
lower 80s across much of the area, but light northerly flow may keep
areas closer to Lake Superior in the lower 70s for afternoon highs.
Dry, quiet, and mostly clear conditions persist into Thursday night
with lows ranging in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Hot and active weather returns as we head into the holiday weekend.
Friday, the 4th of July, mid-upper level ridge axis moves through
the Great Lakes, with the UP situated in strengthening
lower/midlevel southerly flow on the backside of the exiting ridge.
This will help to pump in a warmer airmass, and with a connection to
the Gulf, higher PWATs will be working into the region as well. With
warm, moist, unstable conditions, some weakly-forced daytime
convection will not be ruled out, especially if any weak shortwave
action can move through ahead of our main weekend feature. MUCAPE
potentially in excess of 2000j/kg per the LREF, steep lower and
midlevel lapse rates, and an inverted-v shape to model soundings
indicate that any storms that do develop could put down some good
hail and wind gusts. Given a lack of a real "trigger" for convection
and the trend among guidance for the ridge to hold longer, will let
the low-end NBM PoPs ride for now. Meanwhile, a shortwave will be
moving out of the Rockies and through the Plains Friday, potentially
phasing with another trough moving through the Canadian Prairies
late Friday into Saturday, though timing differences exist among the
guidance. Better chances for showers and storms move in early
Saturday as the shortwave heads towards the area, eventually
dragging a cold front through sometime later in the day Saturday
through early Sunday. MUCAPE increases to around 1-2000j/kg ahead of
the cold front, with healthy bulk shear at around 30-40kts
indicating a potential for some stronger storms producing hail and
gusty winds. Storms wrap up early Sunday behind the exiting front.

Otherwise, look for hot and humid conditions for the holiday. On
Friday, much of the UP peaks well in the 80s, and even in the
lower/mid 90s in the southerly downsloping areas in the far western
UP. The exception Friday will be in the areas nearer to Lake
Michigan, where southerly winds may keep temperatures limited to the
70s. Saturday, temperatures again reach the upper 80s to near 90F in
the eastern UP ahead of the cold front (lower near Lake Michigan).
To the west, behind the front, temperatures peak in the lower to mid
80s.

Dry weather is favored Sunday into early next week with lower to
midlevel ridging building northward behind the exiting weekend
system. However, PoPs return as early as Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward. Following the period of hot weather, temperatures come in
near to below normal Sunday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Skies have turned hazy this afternoon as smoke from upstream
wildfires has reached the Upper Peninsula. This has been able to mix
down to the surface at SAW, with MVFR visibility. MVFR visibility
will be possible there through tonight. Meanwhile, we continue to
monitor for spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a
weak disturbance moving through. Storms would be more likely at IWD
and SAW, with drops down to MVFR possible. Otherwise, VFR prevails
at IWD and CMX for most of the forecast period, though some patchy
fog tonight may drop visibility down to MVFR and possibly IFR early
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

W-SW winds below 20 kts this evening become light and variable
tonight. NE winds increase to 15-20 kts across the W half of the
lake Thursday afternoon while remaining light and variable across
the E half. Winds ease below 20 kts across the entire lake Thursday
night while backing SE across all areas except the extreme W lake.
SSE winds increase to 15-20 kts across the E half Friday with NE 15-
20 kts for the extreme W. Elevated winds are expected through the
weekend. Waves less than 4 ft are expected through the end of the
week with waves approaching 4 ft Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...PK