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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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284 FXUS63 KMQT 100519 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and eastern UP along the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan lake breezes. - Overall, a drier pattern is upcoming compared to the last few weeks. Though some areas of 15-35% chance of precipitation continue into the weekend, most locations will see several days of dry weather. - Very warm over the weekend with high temperatures well into the 80s F. A 10-20% chance of high temperatures at or above 90F. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/... Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Sunny skies across most of the area today has allowed for healthy destabilization (1000 j/kg of CAPE analyzed over the UP), indicated by convection firing along the Superior and Lake Michigan lake breezes across the central and eastern UP. Given weak wind fields, severe storms are not expected, but given fairly high reflectivity and steeper ZDR, a quick heavy downpour is a safe bet. Otherwise, it`s looking like a rather nice (if humid) summer afternoon with most of the area seeing temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s. The exception, as always, is right along Superior, where temperatures in some spots are struggling even to get out of the 60s. Satellite and webcams are even showing marine fog creeping onshore from around Pictured Rocks to Whitefish Point. With onshore flow the rest of today through tonight, fog will likely stick around in those shoreline areas. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 After the diurnally-driven convection currently firing across the central UP tapers of this evening, expect quiet conditions overnight while high clouds continue to filter in ahead of the remnants of Beryl (more on that later). Expect patchy radiation fog development over the interior-western UP, with clear skies and calm winds. Meanwhile, to the east, we may see more widespread fog/low stratus with light NNE winds off of Superior advecting in the moist marine layer inland while upsloping over the land. This should also be able to advect in the marine fog/low stratus already apparent over the open waters of eastern Lake Superior, and currently reaching the shorelines from Pictured Rocks to Whitefish Point. With onshore winds on Wed, low clouds/fog may end up dominating the day from around the Marquette area to Munising, along Pictured Rocks, to Grand Marais. Otherwise, the remnants of Beryl will be passing through the Lower Midwest and into the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will touch off our next round of PoPs, with guidance continuing to favor the eastern UP, as an instability gradient sets up along Lake Michigan and our southern zones. A weaker signal for some spotty showers is apparent across the south-central UP as well; perhaps with upsloping off of Superior, weak showers may be able to develop and progress more inland. With ensembles showing a few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE by the afternoon, some rumbles of thunder will be possible. Strong convection is not expected given a weak wind field. Otherwise, expect a fairly mild day with temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s away from Superior. Where we remain under persistent marine fog/low stratus, temperatures may struggle to reach even into the lower 70s. Dry weather returns into Wednesday evening, but marine fog may persist across the eastern UP while light winds and moist lower levels allow for a potential for radiation fog development to the west. Expect lows ranging in the 50s for most. Ridging over the area Thursday and Friday should yield mainly dry conditions both days. However, with lake breeze development off of both Superior and Lake Michigan Thursday given an otherwise light wind regime, will not rule out some spotty convection especially across the central/south-central UP, where guidance once again shows increasing daytime instability. Given quite a bit of uncertainty with rather dry soundings, this forecast reflects only about a 15% chance for any convection Thursday. There is even less confidence for any convection Friday. By then, we will be under a southerly flow regime on the back edge of the surface high, and less at the mercy of any lake breeze development. Meanwhile, a warming trend will kick off Friday and continue into the weekend, with most of the area seeing highs well into the 80s Friday through Sunday. The hottest day looks to be Sunday, when ensemble guidance indicates up to a 10-20% chance of widespread highs around 90F. Still, highs around 90F are possible each day of this period in the southerly downsloping areas nearer to Lake Superior. A weak passing shortwave supports a potential for some showers/storms beginning Saturday afternoon and evening. Late weekend/early next week, another trough eventually drops out of Manitoba/Ontario, ushering in a cooler airmass. Ahead of that wave, other subtle waves are indicated to progress through W/NW flow into the Upper Great Lakes. Given the substantial instability within the very warm/humid conditions over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, there will be a risk of severe storms Sunday through Monday, but will note that the wind field remains weak. However, as would be expected at this time range, timing of shortwaves and resulting convection, including movement of convection that does develop and whether Upper MI is actually affected, is highly uncertain. Will be something to monitor over the weekend/early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Main forecast challenges revolve around fog potential for the morning hours today. Shallow radiation fog is possible at IWD through around sunrise as winds remain calm. At SAW, the expectation is for low clouds/fog to advect inland off the lake. There is still uncertainty revolving around how thick and long-lived the fog will be, but enough confidence with this cycle to bring in prevailing IFR with tempo LIFR conditions. Conditions return to VFR once this burns off, most probably around 14-15Z but with some uncertainty. Latest model runs suggest fog/low clouds do not make it into CMX, but still around a 20% probability for some vis/cig reductions there 09-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A weak pressure gradient over the Great Lakes will keep winds light for the next several days, likely coming in at 15 kts or less. By Saturday, winds will be on the increase out of the south with troughing to our west, but are still looking to come in generally below 20 kts. Fog currently plaguing portions of northern and eastern Lake Superior will expand to the south tonight as winds become northerly. This fog is likely to be locally dense at times. The fog may linger on Wed across southern portions of the lake, roughly in the area between Granite Island and Whitefish Pt. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ249>251- 266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...Thompson MARINE...LC