901
FXUS63 KMQT 110603
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
203 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy fog west early this morning.

-Showers and thunderstorms enter the picture again over the
 weekend. Severe storm risk will need to be monitored for Sunday
 and Monday, maybe Tuesday as well.

-Very warm over the weekend with high temperatures well into
 the mid and upper 80s F. About a 10% chance of widespread high
 temperatures at or above 90F. Cooling trend begins Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Satellite imagery shows clear skies overhead as high pressure
ridging continues over the Upper Midwest. However, with the clear
skies allowing for temperatures to plummet to the dewpoint early
this morning, expect to see some patchy fog develop over the west
half beginning in an hour or so. The fog looks to continue and
spread east with time early this morning until dawn; the fog will be
burned off by the mid-morning hours. Expect sunny skies today with a
weaker lake breeze developing from the Great Lakes; high
temperatures are expected to be about the same as yesterday,
although some spots may be a degree or two warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Last 24hrs of medium range model runs have maintained consistency on
the large scale evolution of the flow across N America over the next
7 to 10 days, and if anything, agreement has improved a little.
There has been slight progression of western N America mid-level
ridging and central N America troffing over the last 24hrs. This
progression will continue over the next few days as a shortwave
moving off of the ne Pacific into Canada flattens the ridge and
forces height rises/positive height anomalies to spread downstream
across southern Canada. A second wave will quickly follow off of the
ne Pacific Fri/Sat. As ridging then rebuilds over western N America,
that wave will be forced se, leading to modest trof amplification
over eastern Canada and the ne U.S. during the mid week period next
week. For Upper MI, this evolution of the pattern will support a
drier pattern to finish up the work week. There are still
indications for a shortwave to pass early weekend, supporting the
potential of shra/tsra later Sat/Sat night. The next potential of
greater coverage pcpn events as well as possible svr storms will be
late weekend/early next week in advance of and in association with
the onset of eastern troffing. As for temps, the spreading of
positive height anomalies downstream across southern Canada will
herald a warming trend beginning Thu, leading to a very warm/humid
weekend with highs well into the 80s to 90F. Cooler weather will
follow once eastern troffing develops early next week. Still looks
like there will be a couple of pleasant U.P. summer days in the
midweek period next week as Canadian high pres settles over the
Great Lakes region.


Ridging recovers Thursday as the remnants of Beryl move through
southern Quebec. With an otherwise light wind field, lake breezes
should rule the day.  However, a very dry column will preclude any
convection, perhaps with just some cumulus popping along the
boundaries. As we`ll be on the back edge of the ridge Friday, winds
increase out of the SW and usher in a warming trend. High temps in
the mid 70s to lwr 80s on Thu will rise to mostly the 80s on Fri.
Expect locally cooler conditions along Lake Superior and Lake MI on
Thu and mainly just near Lake MI on Fri as a s to sw gradient wind
takes over.

Over the weekend, warming under sw flow will send high temps well
into the mid and upper 80s F. Widespread values around 90F area-wide
are becoming less likely, but NBM continues to highlight our s/sw
downsloping areas for a high probability (60-90% chance) of highs
around or in excess of 90F for Sat-Sun. With lows through the
weekend only in the lower to mid 60s, we won`t have much relief from
the heat overnight. Additionally, dewpoints in the 60s will keep
things feeling rather muggy.

Arrival of a shortwave supports the potential of sct shra/tsra Sat
aftn/Sat night. Then late weekend/early next week, timing of main
shortwave that brings cooling to the area is still fairly uncertain.
However, ahead of that wave, models continue to show other subtle
waves that will be progressing thru wnw flow into the Upper Great
Lakes Sun-Tue. Given the substantial instability that will build due
to the very warm/humid conditions over the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes and the climatologically favored wnw flow
regime for summer svr storms in Upper MI, there will be a risk of
svr storm complexes with these waves. Of course, at this time range,
timing of these subtle waves and the resulting convection, including
where convection develops, is highly uncertain. Will certainly be
something to monitor Sun as an EML nosing into the Upper Midwest or
Great Lakes potentially leads to even steeper values of CAPE. Much
of the guidance available at that range also shows sufficient deep
layer shear to sustain updrafts. Though soundings are less
impressive on Monday, the threat for strong/severe convection is
still worth monitoring then, and maybe Tuesday as well. Fcst
reflects a broad brushing of chc pops, generally 30-40pct, Sun thru
Tue. Cooling should get underway Tuesday into the middle of the week
as the main trough drops through, leading to what should be pleasant
U.P. summer weather Wed/Thu as Canadian high pres settles over the
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Mostly clear skies with light winds will prevail in this period.
Fog/mist may development overnight, mainly for KCMX/KIWD, but can`t
be ruled out for KSAW. Expect visibilities to dip to IFR at
KCMX/KIWD, potentially to LIFR at KIWD at times. Fog/mist should
lift and mix out after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A weak pres gradient will dominate over and in the vcnty of Lake
Superior for the next several days. Result will be winds across Lake
Superior under 20kt and often under 15kt. Some increase in winds may
occur over the weekend with high pres to the se and low pres
troffing to the w and nw.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC