Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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646 FXUS63 KMPX 090353 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1053 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated afternoon showers & thunderstorms through Wednesday. - Hot & humid this weekend with heat indices around 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon with the most widespread coverage across western Wisconsin & coverage gradually becoming more isolated as one goes west across Minnesota. Deep shear is practically non-existent, but 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE means a few of the strongest storms could contain small hail & brief gusty winds. Rainfall amounts could reach around an inch in some spots across western Wisconsin where multiple thunderstorms could hit the same locations, otherwise brief downpours could result in a quick 0.10-0.25" of rain. More of the same weather continues through Wednesday as an Upper Level low sits over the Great Lakes and provides enough upper level forcing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The precipitation chances begin to diminish Thursday & Friday as the upper level low moves off to the east & heights rise in its wake - leading to a gradual warming trend into the upper 80s through week. The real warm temperatures come this weekend, as strong ridging over the southwest CONUS begins to build into the central plains & Upper Midwest. NBM median temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday & Sunday, with the 90th percentile highlighting chances for some mid to upper 90s across western Minnesota. Dew point temperatures will also be on the rise, especially on Sunday, which could result in heat indices approaching 100 degrees and may warrant the need for Heat Advisories this weekend. A complication in the temperature forecast will be the chance for thunderstorms & remnant cloud cover during the day, with the weekend chance for precipitation looking best Saturday morning as a weak shortwave moves through the region. Looking ahead into next week, the ridge axis shifts more to the west which will keep us in generally warmer temperatures, but could place the region under another "ring of fire" pattern where multiple thunderstorm complexes track along the northern periphery of the ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 As close to no weather TAF as possible tonight for most with no winds, no sky, no weather, and full visibility. There could be some fog in Wisconsin, mainly EAU down by the river, where MVFR is possible. Winds will return on Tuesday, but will remain light through the day. There could be another day of afternoon thunderstorms, but the location of this was too uncertain at this time for inclusion in the TAF. Most locations have a 20% chance for a brief afternoon thunderstorm (below the 30% required for a PROB30). KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...NDC