690
FXUS63 KMPX 091903
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
203 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered pulse-like storms from daytime heating today, with
  another chance for storms across mainly southern Minnesota
  tomorrow.

- Dry conditions on Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s this weekend with
  potential chances for storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Today through tomorrow... Radar and satellite imagery depicts a few
showers developing in the cumulus field. Although upper-level
support is weak, scattered and pulse-like storms are expected
to continue this afternoon/evening. CAPE values around 500 - 1000
J/Kg and little to no CIN will allow the strongest cells to produce
brief downpours and the potential for lightning. Tomorrow has a
better chance of seeing more coverage of storms in southern
Minnesota and northern Iowa especially. An embedded shortwave in an
upper-level trough is projected to move through eastern South Dakota
and southwestern Minnesota which will provide better forcing
for storms compared to today. Convective initiation is expected
to begin in the morning across eastern Minnesota and become more
widespread across southern Minnesota during the afternoon/evening
hours. Similar to the storms today, enough instability will be
present to support some brief downpours and lightning, however
the severe weather threat is low. Locally heavy rain may result
in a quick quarter inch of rain or so in any one location.

Later this week... Thursday and Friday will remain dry as an
upper-level ridge starts to build to our west. Other than a few
afternoon clouds, skies will remain mostly sunny with temperatures
in the mid 80s both days.

Saturday and Sunday... The next chance of rain comes early Saturday
morning with deterministic guidance like the ECMWF hinting at a line
of convection starting in northern Minnesota and moving southeast.
This is supported by a LLJ of 30kts extending up to the Canadian
border. With added moisture support a half of an inch of rain is
possible in portions of central Minnesota. However, the GFS suite
is more conservative keeping the LLJ more to the south in Iowa.
Should the GFS solution materialize, most precipitation
chances would remain mainly south of the MN/IA border.

The main headline for the weekend is the heat that will be building
in from the approaching ridge which likely brings a shot at the first
90s of the year at MSP. Dewpoints in the 70s will also provide a
chance of heat index values reaching upper 90s in some places. Even
with the potential of morning convection, reaching these
temperatures is becoming increasingly likely.

The next system to watch is Sunday. Northwesterly flow aloft
featuring a few embedded shortwaves would allow for a more active
weather pattern to return. So while we are drying up from the wet
June we had, we have to keep our eyes on the lookout for classic
summer severe weather setups.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Afternoon cumulus has developed and will result in SCT/BKN
VFR ceilings through sunset. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected from mid-afternoon through sunset with the best
coverage across central Minnesota. Have mentioned a PROB30
mention for -TSRA as precip will be isolated, but brief heavy
downpours and gusty winds are possible. Another wave of isolated
rain showers is possible overnight into tomorrow morning, but
these look to be even more sparse than the precipitation this
afternoon. Winds will be light through the period, with the
direction generally westerly/northwesterly this afternoon &
becoming more northeasterly tomorrow morning.

KMSP...An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
between 4-9 PM. Brief IFR conditions are possible with any heavy
downpours in addition to lightning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ALW/Strus
AVIATION...ETA