401
FXUS63 KMPX 182254
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures with daily chances for isolated
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Its another gorgeous mid July day with some diurnal Cu as high
pressure sits overhead. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than
this time yesterday as WAA has kicked in on the other side of the
aforementioned surface high. Light winds and clearing skies will
likely lead to some patchy early morning fog  again tomorrow across
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. More of the same is
expected during the day tomorrow, but a few diurnally driven
afternoon/evening sprinkles will  be possible across western
Minnesota as more moisture works into the region. Heading into the
overnight hours, southwestern Minnesota may see some more meaningful
rain through early Saturday as a surface low tracks to the southeast
through South Dakota. As of now, a couple of tenths up to a half
inch looks plausible, but now that were within range of the CAMs,
some are showing higher amounts may materialize.

Heading into the weekend, showers will likely be ongoing across
western and southern Minnesota as the low continues to move to the
south. We should end up with enough sun during the afternoon hours
to destabilize enough to allow for the return of widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms through the evening hours. This precip
should amount to only a couple tenths of an inch at most. Sunday
through early next week should play out similarly (minus the morning
activity) with widespread 20-40% chances of rain in the afternoon
and evening. Not much change is expected until the middle of next
week when things look to turn slightly more active. A shortwave on
the eastern periphery of a building ridge across the western CONUS
is forecast to drop southward sometime Tuesday/Wednesday, which will
be our next system to watch. Beyond that, the ridge shifts east and
we will likely see a return of temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Diurnal CU will dissipate this evening and redevelop Friday
morning. A few storms are possible across western MN toward the
tail end of the period. Light winds will become SSW and remain
less than 10 kts Friday.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance afternoon TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff