684
FXUS63 KMPX 161107
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
607 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A rather quiet night across the Upper MS Valley after a long stretch
of active weather. Current observations reveal a rather warm night
despite the FROPA yesterday evening. Low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s in the Twin Cities. Our pattern will continue
the shift toward a much drier and cooler one for the rest of the
week. An upper-level trough will dig into the the western Great
Lakes. This will support a slight chance for a few showers or
sprinkles this afternoon despite limited moisture to work with. On
Wednesday, a strong surface high pressure builds into the Upper
Midwest with cooler air filtering in with it. This will be the
primary driver of the pattern over the next several days that will
translate to a nice stretch with mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the 70s. That`s not bad for mid-July!

Our high pressure shifts east by the end of the work week. This will
allow a gradual warm up over the weekend as highs return into the
80s. An impressive upper level ridge over the western CONUS will
attempt to build eastward with limited success. An rather amplified
flow will result in northward expansion of heights with troughing
over easter NOAM. We will find ourselves in the middle that should
maintain fairly seasonable temperatures through next weekend.
Precipitation chances remain very low through Friday evening before
slight chance PoPs return in the NBM. The NBM is likely picking up
on a shortwave that will attempt to dig into the Midwest Friday
night into Saturday. Ensembles hint at some low QPF potential for
next week that would line up with the slight chance PoPs this far
our. There isn`t a great deal of moisture to work with given
the amped northerly flow aloft so I would not expect a
meaningful severe weather potential. GEFS and EPS suggest
temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s for early next
week. Moisture remains rather limited, but given the time of
year I suspect dew points will still be in the 60s across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered to broken clouds near 8000-10000 feet will build in by
late this morning and last through this afternoon. A few
isolated showers are also possible in western MN this morning
and area-wide this afternoon. However, coverage and impacts are
currently not forecast to be great enough to include in TAFs.
VFR expected the entire period. Northwesterly winds will reach
about 10 knots this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.
FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG