818
FXUS63 KMPX 161732
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A rather quiet night across the Upper MS Valley after a long stretch
of active weather. Current observations reveal a rather warm night
despite the FROPA yesterday evening. Low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s in the Twin Cities. Our pattern will continue
the shift toward a much drier and cooler one for the rest of the
week. An upper-level trough will dig into the the western Great
Lakes. This will support a slight chance for a few showers or
sprinkles this afternoon despite limited moisture to work with. On
Wednesday, a strong surface high pressure builds into the Upper
Midwest with cooler air filtering in with it. This will be the
primary driver of the pattern over the next several days that will
translate to a nice stretch with mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the 70s. That`s not bad for mid-July!

Our high pressure shifts east by the end of the work week. This will
allow a gradual warm up over the weekend as highs return into the
80s. An impressive upper level ridge over the western CONUS will
attempt to build eastward with limited success. An rather amplified
flow will result in northward expansion of heights with troughing
over easter NOAM. We will find ourselves in the middle that should
maintain fairly seasonable temperatures through next weekend.
Precipitation chances remain very low through Friday evening before
slight chance PoPs return in the NBM. The NBM is likely picking up
on a shortwave that will attempt to dig into the Midwest Friday
night into Saturday. Ensembles hint at some low QPF potential for
next week that would line up with the slight chance PoPs this far
our. There isn`t a great deal of moisture to work with given
the amped northerly flow aloft so I would not expect a
meaningful severe weather potential. GEFS and EPS suggest
temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s for early next
week. Moisture remains rather limited, but given the time of
year I suspect dew points will still be in the 60s across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SCT cumulus through
sunset and a few high clouds. Isolated rain showers are likely
across eastern MN & western WI this afternoon but should not
pose any impact to vis/cigs. Winds will be northwesterly this
afternoon around 10 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts. Speeds
diminish towards sunset with winds becoming more northerly
tomorrow morning & speeds increasing to 10-20 kts by the end of
the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA