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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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575 AWUS01 KWNH 072118 FFGMPD OKZ000-080100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 518 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Central and Southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 072117Z - 080100Z SUMMARY...Training storms along I-40 in west central Oklahoma are producing local rates approaching 3 inches per hour. Flash flooding is likely. DISCUSSION...Training storms have developed along a stationary boundary across west central Oklahoma this afternoon. Drier air moving southward north of the front is colliding with much more moist and unstable air streaming northward out of Texas. The result is a stationary boundary where the 2 air masses are clashing...resulting in training thunderstorms roughly right along I-40 west of Oklahoma City. While the storms are drifting eastward with time, CAMs guidance despite poorly handling the ongoing convection suggest that the storms will gradually shift southward with time, which is why portions of southwest Oklahoma are included in the threat area. Certainly short-term the threat is along I-40 from Elk City to Oklahoma City, but expect the typical way storms evolve in this environment is to "follow the instability, so they should gradually begin to drift south with time. Further, the drier air to the north should also begin to shift the frontal boundary south. Urban and small stream flash flooding is the primary threat with these storms, with the urban threat increasing should stronger storms make their way into the Oklahoma City metro. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35719726 35629696 35339685 34729692 34409801 34499938 34989979 35669957 35699809