255
AWUS01 KWNH 080847
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-081245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0590
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080845Z - 081245Z

SUMMARY...A linear band of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern MO will continue to pose a threat
of flash flooding going into the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a west to east
oriented band of heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions
of central and eastern MO. The activity is focused along and north
of a surface trough and ahead of a cold front approaching from the
west.

MUCAPE values are locally on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg with
moist and relatively convergent low-level flow advancing north up
across the region. There is evidence in GOES-E IR satellite
imagery of a weak vort center slowly transiting the region and
this coupled with the existing thermodynamic environment may allow
for the ongoing axis of convection to persist at least into the
early morning hours.

PWs are generally on the order of 1.6 to 1.8 inches and the
available instability should still be able to generate some
rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The latest radar and
satellite trends and the 06Z HREF guidance suggest that some
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches may occur through
early this morning.

Much of this will be tied into the slow cell-motions and training
of convective cells in a general west to east fashion. Gradually
this activity should weaken later this morning, but at least for
the next few hours, there will continue to be a threat for at
least localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39539147 39419076 39009069 38669212 38459329
            38829366 39199320