425
AWUS01 KWNH 081908
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0594
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081907Z - 090107Z

Summary...Convection is filling in along an emerging deformation
zone northeast of Tropical Storm Beryl. Periods of training with
efficient rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr will cause widely
scattered instances of flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and GLM trends highlight expanding thunderstorm
coverage across portions of the Ozarks, along and ahead of a
deformation/convergence zone and strengthening jet streak evident
in LPW and moisture channel imagery. Recent estimates from MRMS
and dual-pol across the region suggest increased rainfall
efficiency within these cells, with some 2-2.5"/hr rates noted.
Where these cells have persisted, fairly quick responses in the
CREST Unit Streamflow are noted.

While persistent cloud cover has hampered insolation, widespread
moistening from the approach of Beryl has allowed for 1.6-2.2"
PWATS and 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop around the convection.
Combined with the low-level convergence and increasing upper-jet
dynamics, the environment is very supportive for efficient periods
of training convection as the mean-wind is oriented parallel to
the forcing. In the short term, portions of the northeast Ozarks
may may have a locally higher threat of training and backbuilding
as the low-level inflow is at or near the mean wind per
mesoanalysis.

The 12z HREF LPMM maintains a strong signal for this activity
through the evening, and suggests rainfall amounts of 3-4" are
possible where the convection can train the longest. This is
expected to lead to at least scattered instances of flash flooding
tonight ahead of Beryl.

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...
NWC...

LAT...LON   38249046 37848879 36788825 35928975 35129329
            33339601 33249707 34099726 35949569 37579333