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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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769 AWUS01 KWNH 100336 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100935- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0601 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1135 PM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...Eastern IL...Central/Northern IN...Western OH...Southern Lower MI Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 100335Z - 100935Z SUMMARY...Post-T.C. Beryl will continue off to the northeast overnight, bringing heavy rain and a threat of flooding to the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows Post-T.C. Beryl continuing to advance off to the northeast across the OH Valley. An axis of moderate to heavy rain continues to focus north of the storm track in association with a well-defined mid-level deformation zone and coincidence with an axis of strong frontogenetic forcing. This is being facilitated by a deep layer TROWAL associated with the deeper layer and very warm/moist southerly flow advecting north ahead of Beryl`s track. The heaviest rains within the deformation zone are generally focused across east-central to northeast IL through northern IN and into southern Lower MI. To the southeast of this corridor, there are areas of heavy rain that include some stronger elevated convective elements, and this is generally noted across central IN through western OH. A nose of stronger instability associated with a convergent southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts continues to lift north and over a warm front that extends east of Beryl`s circulation, and MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are noted across central IN through western OH. Greater instability meanwhile is situated closer to the OH River over southern IN through southern OH where MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted. Rainfall rates with the stronger convective elements closer to the warm front have recently been on the order of 1" to 2"/hour, with rates back into the deformation zone persistently in the 0.50" to 0.75"/hour range. The PW environment remains quite tropical over the OH Valley with values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches based on a combination of 00Z RAOB and GPS-derived information, and this environment should continue to favor efficient rainfall processes for locally enhanced rainfall rates overnight. Additional rainfall totals overnight will likely reach as high as 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals not out of the question where any stronger convective cells persist. These rains will promote a threat for additional flooding overnight, including some localized urban flash flooding concerns. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42748504 42588330 41488254 40268284 39078399 39158502 40028564 40198608 40208713 40138782 40438843 41108830 41838748 42368634