414
AWUS01 KWNH 120629
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas, far western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120627Z - 121227Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are producing spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS).  These rates pose an
isolated flash flood risk over the next few hours.

Discussion...A focused, slow-moving band of deep convection has
materialized across portions of southeastern Kansas over the past
hour or so (near Chanute and Pittsburg).  The storms are very slow
moving due to weak northwesterly steering flow (at around 10
knots).  The storms are focused on the nose of 25-30 kt
southwesterly flow at 850mb and are in an environment
characterized by modestly steep lapse rates aloft (~7C/km) atop
70s F surface dewpoints, yielding 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE.  The slow
movement and 1.5 inch PW values have fostered areas of 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates to materialize.  These rates were slightly lower than
local FFG thresholds across southeastern Kansas (in the 2.5
inch/hr range) - suggesting only isolated flash flood potential in
low-lying spots and/or areas that can experience more than one
hour of the heavier rates.

A cold pool/weak wave aloft was aiding in convective development
as well, and will be migrating slowly southward across the
discussion area through the early morning hours.  Additional
convective bands may materialize, and a higher (but still
isolated) flash flood risk may unfold if cells can produce heavier
rainfall in Missouri where FFG thresholds are a bit lower (around
1.5 inch/hr).  This threat is uncertain, however.  The more
certain scenario is for storms to continue to focus on the nose of
stronger low-level flow in southeastern Kansas through the early
morning.  This flow will eventually veer to westerly and weaken
some, with an attendant decrease in convective potential expected
through 12Z.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39259506 38629406 37459387 36749390 36919526
            37369614 38869603