097
AWUS01 KWNH 150340
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-150900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0690
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern Virginia...Central North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150340Z - 150900Z

SUMMARY...Slower, but more widely scattered thunderstorms capable
of 2.5"/hr rates and localized 2-4" totals remain possible.  Flash
flooding potential/coverage remains greater further north, but

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows core of strongest DPVA/core of base
of longer wave trof continues to press into the Northeast while
the lingering shear axis under weaker overall flow is continuing
to flatten east to west across the Central Appalachians into
eastern KY.  As such, the strongest height-falls and forcing
remain further north and can be seen well by the forward push of
the southern end of the squall line through the Middle and
Virginia Peninsulas.  Southward, while the forcing is a bit
weaker, deep layer moisture convergence remains sufficient within
the very deep/anomalous warm conveyor belt that remains situated
from central MD through the Piedmont of central NC with 2-2.25"
PWat values remaining.  Air also remains conditionally buoyant
with 1500-2000 J/kg of weakly capped MLCAPE, so locally focused
convergence could result in scattered to widely scattered
thunderstorms through the overnight period.

As noted by passing shortwave well to the north, the overall
steering flow is also fairly weak at about 5-10kts at most in a
generally col of the flow from the northern stream and southerly
motions on the far northeast side of the Southeast US ridging.  As
such, deep layer warm cloud processes and ample moisture and
sufficiently strong updrafts would be capable of 2.5"/hr rates.
One to two hours of duration may result in highly focused 2-3"
footprints with an isolated 4" total possible, especially further
north into southern VA.   Overlap this with urban locations across
central NC and an incident or two of flash flooding is considered
possible through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37827883 37757767 37607701 37487629 37107608
            36627603 36177742 35337889 34908007 35278126
            35818111 37107972 37547921