599
FXUS64 KMOB 061749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

MVFR ceilings continue west of I-65 this afternoon and VFR
conditions east of I-65. Increasing coverage in storms is expected
this afternoon with the best chances along highway 84 and the I-10
corridor. Coverage is expected to be less than yesterday but
temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings could be
possible nearby storms. Storms will dissipate around midnight.
Light west-southwesterly winds continue through the forecast.
BB/03

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The rest of this weekend appears to be a rinse and repeat of what
has happened the past couple days. An active Summer time pattern
persists with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected again both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. A stalled
boundary over the forecast area will once again serve as our
primary mechanism for storm development, with primary hazards from
storms being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. PWATs remain
very high in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range today and tomorrow, meaning
storms will likely be very heavy rain producers with potential
for localized flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas
possible in any locations that see training storms.

Outside of storms the heat is on again this afternoon.
Temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90`s coupled with high
dewpoints in the middle to upper 70`s inland and lower 80`s nearer
the coast will support another day of heat index values exceeding
105 to 110 degrees. A heat advisory goes into effect this morning,
lasting through the late afternoon for much of southwestern Alabama
into the Florida panhandle. In southeastern Mississippi, storm and
cloud coverage should remain sufficient to keep temperatures
slightly cooler, and likewise heat index values of 100 to 105 are
expected in those areas. It is possible we hit heat advisory
criteria again on Sunday, however extent of storm coverage may keep
temperatures down enough to keep heat index values in the 100 to 107
range. If confidence increases on warmer high temperatures and/or
lesser storm coverage, a heat advisory could be needed for a large
portion of the forecast area.

Our beach hazards continue as we move through the rest of the
weekend. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through
Sunday night. The anticipated swell packet associated with now
Tropical Storm Beryl arrived late yesterday afternoon resulting in a
rapid and significant uptick in the presence of strong rip currents
at AL/FL beaches. The swell period should gradually diminish,
however anticipate a continued threat for strong rip currents
through at least Sunday morning/afternoon, gradually waning into the
evening and night time hours. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect for all of the AL/FL panhandle coast where minor flooding
associated with wave run-up due to the swell may occur. This is
particularly the case in our more vulnerable areas such as the
west end of Dauphin Island and the Fort Pickens area. MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  93  76  92  77  90  76  93 /  40  60  20  60  40  70  40  50
Pensacola   80  90  79  91  80  90  79  92 /  30  60  30  60  40  70  40  50
Destin      81  88  80  90  81  90  80  92 /  30  60  30  60  40  70  40  50
Evergreen   74  92  74  93  74  91  73  92 /  30  60  40  70  30  70  30  60
Waynesboro  74  93  73  95  74  91  73  89 /  30  60  30  60  30  80  30  50
Camden      74  92  74  93  73  92  73  89 /  30  60  40  70  30  70  30  60
Crestview   76  93  74  93  75  91  75  94 /  30  60  30  70  30  70  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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