397
FXUS64 KMOB 070055
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through tonight. Scattered showers and
storms develop again Sunday afternoon with brief reductions in
ceilings and visbys. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Todays coverage across the area seems to be a little less than the
past couple as early clouds helped keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler during the day resulting in less mixing and a weaker
seabreeze circulation. As a result, POPs were lowered for the
remainder of the afternoon. Satellite observations do hint at the
potential for storms to fire up along the stalled boundary across
the I-65 corridor during this evening. Sunday on the other hand
looks to be a little more active and will follow a similar pattern
to the past few days with storms starting along the coastline then
progressing inland during the afternoon. Given PWATs of 2.25 to
2.5 inches across the area, expect storms to be capable of heavy
rainfall. Frequent lighting and some gusty winds will also be
possible. It will remain toasty tomorrow with heat indices
ranging around 105; however, storm coverage will likely limit the
duration of the heat during the afternoon. BB/03

Our beach hazards continue as we move through the rest of the
weekend. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect through
Sunday night. The anticipated swell packet associated with now
Tropical Storm Beryl arrived late yesterday afternoon resulting in a
rapid and significant uptick in the presence of strong rip currents
at AL/FL beaches. The swell period should gradually diminish,
however anticipate a continued threat for strong rip currents
through at least Sunday morning/afternoon, gradually waning into the
evening and night time hours. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect for all of the AL/FL panhandle coast where minor flooding
associated with wave run-up due to the swell may occur. This is
particularly the case in our more vulnerable areas such as the
west end of Dauphin Island and the Fort Pickens area. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

There will be little change to the overall weather pattern late
this weekend into the middle part of next week. Upper level
ridging will continue to nose westward from the western Atlantic
through the north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday.
Abundant deep layer moisture will remain entrenched over our
forecast area underneath the ridge axis each day, with
precipitable water values generally continuing to average between
1.75 and 2.25 inches. Rain chances will likely be highest during
the beginning half of the week as the remnant moisture of Beryl
moves around the strengthening ridge. Expect the best coverage to
be west of I-65 Tuesday through Wednesday. By the latter half of
the week, a subtle boundary will push through the area taking a
little of the moisture out. Dewpoints will drop a little bit
leading to not quite as oppressive and humid conditions. With the
lower moisture and northwesterly surface winds, rain chances will
likely become much more scattered during the afternoon and
focused along the seabreeze. Overall the back half of the week
appears to be more traditional summertime like pattern and heat
rather than the active and steamy period we have been dealing
with. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A light southerly flow continues through the rest of the weekend as
larger period swell from Beryl persists in the marine waters.
Winds will increase slightly as the remnants of Beryl track north
of our area by mid-week and increased waves from Beryl will
arrive as well. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  76  92  77  90  77  92 /  50  50  20  60  30  80  40  50
Pensacola   79  92  78  91  79  90  79  92 /  40  60  30  60  40  70  40  50
Destin      81  91  80  91  80  90  80  90 /  30  60  30  70  30  70  30  50
Evergreen   76  94  74  94  74  92  75  93 /  50  80  30  70  20  70  20  50
Waynesboro  73  94  74  94  74  92  74  93 /  30  60  20  60  20  80  30  40
Camden      75  94  74  94  74  93  73  93 /  30  70  30  60  30  70  20  40
Crestview   75  95  74  94  74  92  75  92 /  30  80  30  70  20  70  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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