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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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948 FXUS64 KMOB 140123 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 823 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Convective coverage along the sea breeze that penetrated inland earlier today and along outflow boundaries continues to diminish with most areas rainfree after 02z. Skies will clear with VFR ceilings persisting through late tonight. Additional storm development just prior to and around sunrise is expected offshore with the land breeze. This convection will attempt to move onshore so VCTS has been included earlier at sites near the coast. The sea breeze will develop later in the morning and again spread inland resulting in vicinity coverage of thunder developing towards KBFM and KMOB by midday. Scattered storms will continue near all sites through early evening with brief reductions in visibilities in heavy rain, but too limited to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will be driven by the land breeze tonight and bay/sea breezes on Sunday. /JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Expect a rinse and repeat of today with maybe a little less coverage along the coast during the mid-morning hours. The weak upper trough that has been situated across the mid-south will continue to slowly weaken as high pressure builds westward across the northern Gulf. This will likely usher in slightly drier air aloft, but also keep us in our standard diurnal pattern. Expect the usual storms to develop along the landbreeze during the morning just offshore then slowly progress inland throughout the afternoon with the seabreeze. Given the drier air aloft storms may struggle to persist but if they can cluster up enough then some stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall may develop. The best rain chances during the afternoon appear to be west of I-65 closer to the periphery of the upper ridge and better moisture is located. Given the likely presence of the ridge, ample sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to possibly upper 90s across the area. In most locations inland, dewpoints will likely mix out leading to hot but not advisory criteria hot. However along the coast, there may be a period during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland where heat indices could reach advisory criteria. The only question mark is the potential for clouds and rain. For now we will hold off on a new heat advisory but if confidence increases in the potential for heat indices exceeding 108 then an advisory will be needed for tomorrow. BB/03 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday a deepening upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible through early week, with the best chances associated with the sea breeze circulation early each afternoon and spreading inland somewhat during the late afternoon and early evening hours with outflow boundaries becoming the primary focus. Late night and early morning convection can be expected near the coast and over the marine area just offshore. Available atmospheric moisture remains high, and storms are not expected to move very fast after developing, so locally heavy rainfall could be possible for some locations. Daily rain chances will likely rise Wednesday through Friday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves periodically swing across the region around the base of the trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior portions of MS and AL. Heat issues will be the most impactful concern during the period, especially through about Wednesday before the upper ridging erodes. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across most of the area, and combined with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70s, we will likely be looking at afternoon heat indices that will be be fairly widespread in the 108-110 degree range. Heat Advisory products will likely be required each day, for at least portions of the area, Monday through Wednesday. Increased PoPs and cloud cover Thursday and Friday should limit heat indices below advisory levels for those days, but it will still be hot with highs generally in the lower 90s for most locations. Nighttime lows through the period will range from the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. DS/12 MARINE... Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A weak westerly flow is expected through the weekend and into early next week. A typical diurnal seabreeze/landbreeze will provide a nearshore winds a more onshore/offshore component. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 95 77 94 76 93 75 93 / 20 60 20 60 20 60 20 60 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 78 92 78 92 / 10 50 20 50 20 60 30 60 Destin 81 92 80 92 80 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 50 30 50 30 50 Evergreen 74 97 74 95 73 94 73 92 / 20 60 20 60 20 60 30 60 Waynesboro 74 97 74 95 74 96 74 94 / 30 60 20 60 20 60 20 60 Camden 75 97 74 95 74 95 74 93 / 10 50 20 60 20 60 30 60 Crestview 75 97 74 95 74 95 73 94 / 20 50 20 70 20 70 20 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob