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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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969 FXUS64 KMOB 152102 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 In a stunning turn of events it will be hot with a side of storms in the afternoon. I know surprising for summer isn`t it? Change is on the way but we still have another day or two of toasty conditions and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The upper ridge continues to nose in from the west; however, a series of shortwaves progressing through the flow will prevent it from fully taking control over the area. Expect the typical diurnal pattern to allow for scattered storms to develop along the immediate coast during the early morning hours. These storms will gradually push offshore leading to a rather dry middle part of the day before the seabreeze kicks in and storms develop inland. Best rain chances appear to be areas east of I-65 where moisture is better and influences from the weak upper shortwave are better felt. Heat will once again be a concern where increased dewpoints will allow for heat indices to run in the 105 to 109 range across the entire area. The best chance to hit higher heat indices will be across areas west of I-65 where the ridge is stronger and storms will hold off long enough to support higher temperatures. BB/03 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 An active weather pattern persists across the southeastern U.S. Tuesday night through Monday. Semi-permanent upper troughing across the central into northeastern CONUS will keep a weakness in upper ridging present across the forecast area during the period. Several weak shortwaves track across the region, allowing for daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thursday into Friday appear to be the wettest days as a pair of shortwaves manage to work their way into the CWA, generating numerous showers and storms through the day. Temperatures will be seasonable for the most part as showers and storms keep afternoon highs a bit more tempered, particularly Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. Highs will be in the lower 90`s Wednesday and Thursday, with middle to upper 80`s inland Friday and lower 90`s nearer the coast. The rest of the period will maintain upper 80`s to lower 90`s Saturday through Monday. Overnight lows follow a similar trend, going from middle to upper 70`s Tuesday and Wednesday nights to upper 60`s and lower 70`s over the interior Thursday night through Sunday night with lower to middle 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of rip currents remains during the period. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A light southwesterly to westerly flow is expected through the week.Diurnally driven flow will be present along the nearshore waters with onshore flow during the afternoon and offshore flow overnight. There is a chance of thunderstorms each day this week with favorable conditions for waterspouts in the mornings. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 77 93 76 92 74 89 / 10 50 10 60 20 90 70 80 Pensacola 78 92 79 92 78 91 78 89 / 40 50 20 70 40 90 60 80 Destin 80 91 81 91 81 90 79 89 / 40 50 20 60 40 90 60 80 Evergreen 73 94 74 94 73 92 72 88 / 20 70 10 70 30 90 60 80 Waynesboro 74 95 74 96 74 93 71 87 / 20 50 10 60 30 90 60 80 Camden 73 95 74 95 73 91 70 86 / 20 50 10 60 30 90 60 80 Crestview 75 95 74 94 74 92 73 91 / 20 60 10 70 20 90 60 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob