410
FXUS64 KMOB 162059
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Expect the isolated to scattered showers and storms to dissipate
around mid-evening with loss of daytime heating, with convection
becoming focused offshore over the marine waters by late tonight.
Low temperatures tonight fall into the middle to upper 70s. The
unsettled pattern continues on Wednesday as the base of an upper
trough moves into the TN/Mid-MS Valley region. Plentiful deep layer
moisture remains in place over our area, so the pattern will once
again favor good convective chances over the region Wednesday
afternoon. Weak shear and moderate instability suggests storms
should again be more typical pulse-type summertime storms, with
potential for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning. With the base of the upper trough nudging closer to the
area Wednesday night, we do not expect the convection to dissipate
during evening but continue through the overnight period.

Hot and humid conditions can be expected prior to and outside of
convective initiation. Highs in the mid 90s inland and around 90 to
the lower 90s along the coast combined with dewpoints in the 70s
will result in heat indices between 105-110 over much of the area on
Wednesday. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is now in effect for the
southern and western portions of our forecast area on Wednesday from
10am to 7pm. The risk of rip currents looks to remain low for the
next several days. /22



&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An active stretch for showers and thunderstorms remains expected
at least from late this week into the weekend. Upper troughing
remains across the northeastern U.S. into the late week with some
signs of an upper level low cutting off from the main trough
across the central U.S. by the beginning of next week. Ridging
should begin to nose back into the area early next week, perhaps
tempering rain chances somewhat. In the meantime, with the
aforementioned troughing, several shortwaves swing across the
area Thursday through Sunday and likewise a surface cold front
will stall and remain across the forecast area starting Thursday.
This will serve as the focus for numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms each day. With high PWATs remaining in the 2 to
2.25 inch range, storms should remain efficient rainfall
producers. Training of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the
course of several days could promote localized instances of flash
flooding, particularly in low lying and urban areas.

Temperatures will remain near or just below seasonable norms for
this time of year owing to the increased cloud cover and rain
chances. Highs generally will be in the middle to upper 80`s for
most locations on the rainiest days Friday through Sunday, with
upper 80`s to lower 90`s expected Thursday and again Monday into
Tuesday. Overnight lows stay steady state in the upper 60`s to
lower 70`s inland and middle to upper 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW
risk of rip currents remains in place through the forecast period.
MM/25



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
as a light onshore flow prevails throughout the week. /22



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  76  92  74  89  74  89 /  20  50  30  80  70  80  70  80
Pensacola   79  91  79  90  78  88  77  88 /  20  50  40  80  60  80  60  80
Destin      81  91  80  88  80  87  79  87 /  20  50  40  70  70  80  50  80
Evergreen   74  94  74  90  71  86  70  86 /  30  60  30  80  60  80  60  80
Waynesboro  74  96  75  92  70  87  70  88 /  30  50  30  80  70  80  60  80
Camden      74  95  74  91  70  86  70  87 /  20  60  40  80  70  80  50  80
Crestview   74  94  75  92  74  89  73  90 /  20  60  30  80  60  80  50  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>053-
     059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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