402
FXUS64 KMOB 172031
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Expect the scattered showers and storms to mostly dissipate around
mid-evening with loss of daytime heating. However, we are expecting
a slight increase in convection along the coast and across our far
northwest zones late tonight as an upper trough approaches our
region. Low temperatures tonight fall into the low to middle 70s,
with upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands. The unsettled
pattern continues on Thursday as the base of an upper trough settles
over the Lower Mississippi River and northwest Gulf regions. Deep
layer will increase even more after midnight as the trough nudges
closer, so the pattern will once again favor very good convective
chances throughout the day Thursday, but especially in the afternoon
when numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be
expected. Weak shear and moderate instability suggests storms should
again be pulse-type convection, with potential for brief heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the base of the
upper trough remaining to our west Thursday night, we do expect the
convection to continue through the entire overnight period.

Hot and humid conditions can be expected prior to and outside of
convective initiation. Highs Thursday should range from 90 to 95
degrees, and when combined with dewpoints in the 70s result in heat
indices between 102-107 degrees. We will not be issuing a Heat
Advisory for Thursday as mostly cloudy to cloudy skies may keep
highs a bit cooler then currently forecast. The risk of rip currents
looks to remain low for the next several days. /22



&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An active stretch for showers and thunderstorms remains expected
Friday into early next week. Upper troughing remains across the
northeastern U.S. before ejecting, leaving behind broad, weak
troughing in the central and southern U.S. by Saturday into Sunday.
Ridging should begin to nose back into the area early next week,
perhaps bringing temperatures back up somewhat by Wednesday. In
the meantime, with the aforementioned troughing, several
shortwaves swing across the area during the period and a surface
boundary will remain stalled and gradually wash out across the
forecast area. This will serve as the focus for numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. With high PWATs
remaining in the 2 to 2.25 inch range, storms should remain
efficient rainfall producers. Training of heavy rain and
thunderstorms over the course of several days could promote
localized instances of flash flooding, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

Temperatures will remain near or just below seasonable norms for
this time of year owing to the increased cloud cover and rain
chances. Highs generally will be in the middle to upper 80`s for
most locations on the rainiest days Friday through Sunday, with
upper 80`s to lower 90`s expected Monday through Wednesday.
Overnight lows stay steady state in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s
inland and middle to upper 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of
rip currents remains in place through the forecast period. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
and over the weekend as a light onshore flow prevails. /221



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  74  88  75  88  74  87 /  30  80  70  90  70  90  50  90
Pensacola   78  90  77  88  78  87  78  88 /  30  70  70  90  70  90  60  90
Destin      80  90  78  87  80  87  79  88 /  30  80  70  90  70  80  60  90
Evergreen   73  92  72  86  70  85  70  87 /  30  90  70  90  60  90  50  90
Waynesboro  73  93  70  86  70  88  70  87 /  40  90  70  90  60  90  50  90
Camden      73  92  70  85  70  86  70  87 /  30  90  70  90  60  90  50  90
Crestview   74  93  73  89  74  89  73  90 /  30  80  60  90  60  90  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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