240
FXUS64 KMOB 140458
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1158 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
coastal portions of the forecast area during the mid to late
morning hours on Sunday before gradually developing further
inland into the afternoon. VCTS has been maintained at all local
TAF sites with slightly earlier convective times at KJKA/KPNS.
Brief reductions in visibility can be expected in and near
convection. Light winds tonight gradually become southerly to
southwesterly 5-10 knots by Sunday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Convective coverage along the sea breeze that penetrated inland
earlier today and along outflow boundaries continues to diminish
with most areas rainfree after 02z. Skies will clear with VFR
ceilings persisting through late tonight.

Additional storm development just prior to and around sunrise is
expected offshore with the land breeze. This convection will
attempt to move onshore so VCTS has been included earlier at sites
near the coast. The sea breeze will develop later in the morning
and again spread inland resulting in vicinity coverage of thunder
developing towards KBFM and KMOB by midday. Scattered storms will
continue near all sites through early evening with brief
reductions in visibilities in heavy rain, but too limited to
include in the TAF at this time. Winds will be driven by the land
breeze tonight and bay/sea breezes on Sunday. /JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Expect a rinse and repeat of today with maybe a little less
coverage along the coast during the mid-morning hours. The weak
upper trough that has been situated across the mid-south will
continue to slowly weaken as high pressure builds westward across
the northern Gulf. This will likely usher in slightly drier air
aloft, but also keep us in our standard diurnal pattern. Expect
the usual storms to develop along the landbreeze during the
morning just offshore then slowly progress inland throughout the
afternoon with the seabreeze. Given the drier air aloft storms may
struggle to persist but if they can cluster up enough then some
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall may develop.
The best rain chances during the afternoon appear to be west of
I-65 closer to the periphery of the upper ridge and better
moisture is located. Given the likely presence of the ridge, ample
sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to
possibly upper 90s across the area. In most locations inland,
dewpoints will likely mix out leading to hot but not advisory
criteria hot. However along the coast, there may be a period
during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland where heat
indices could reach advisory criteria. The only question mark is
the potential for clouds and rain. For now we will hold off on a
new heat advisory but if confidence increases in the potential for
heat indices exceeding 108 then an advisory will be needed for
tomorrow. BB/03

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Sunday
night through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday a deepening
upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to
locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible
through early week, with the best chances associated with the sea
breeze circulation early each afternoon and spreading inland
somewhat during the late afternoon and early evening hours with
outflow boundaries becoming the primary focus. Late night and
early morning convection can be expected near the coast and over
the marine area just offshore. Available atmospheric moisture
remains high, and storms are not expected to move very fast after
developing, so locally heavy rainfall could be possible for some
locations. Daily rain chances will likely rise Wednesday through
Friday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves
periodically swing across the region around the base of the
trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface
high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area
and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior
portions of MS and AL. Heat issues will be the most impactful
concern during the period, especially through about Wednesday
before the upper ridging erodes. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday
will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across most of the
area, and combined with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70s,
we will likely be looking at afternoon heat indices that will be
be fairly widespread in the 108-110 degree range. Heat Advisory
products will likely be required each day, for at least portions
of the area, Monday through Wednesday. Increased PoPs and cloud
cover Thursday and Friday should limit heat indices below advisory
levels for those days, but it will still be hot with highs
generally in the lower 90s for most locations. Nighttime lows
through the period will range from the low to mid 70s inland to
the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak westerly flow is expected through the weekend and into
early next week. A typical diurnal seabreeze/landbreeze will
provide a nearshore winds a more onshore/offshore component. No
impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  77  94  76  93  75  93 /  20  60  20  60  20  60  20  60
Pensacola   79  93  79  92  78  92  78  92 /  10  50  20  50  20  60  30  60
Destin      81  92  80  92  80  91  79  90 /  10  40  20  50  30  50  30  50
Evergreen   74  97  74  95  73  94  73  92 /  20  60  20  60  20  60  30  60
Waynesboro  74  97  74  95  74  96  74  94 /  30  60  20  60  20  60  20  60
Camden      75  97  74  95  74  95  74  93 /  10  50  20  60  20  60  30  60
Crestview   75  97  74  95  74  95  73  94 /  20  50  20  70  20  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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