660
FXUS64 KMOB 160028
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
728 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail at the terminals through
the period. Scattered storms will persist across inland counties
through 2-3z this evening. Expect an uptick in storm coverage by
11-12z near the coastline with another round of scattered storms
impacting inland locations by the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

In a stunning turn of events it will be hot with a side of storms
in the afternoon. I know surprising for summer isn`t it? Change
is on the way but we still have another day or two of toasty
conditions and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The upper ridge
continues to nose in from the west; however, a series of
shortwaves progressing through the flow will prevent it from fully
taking control over the area. Expect the typical diurnal pattern
to allow for scattered storms to develop along the immediate coast
during the early morning hours. These storms will gradually push
offshore leading to a rather dry middle part of the day before the
seabreeze kicks in and storms develop inland. Best rain chances
appear to be areas east of I-65 where moisture is better and
influences from the weak upper shortwave are better felt. Heat
will once again be a concern where increased dewpoints will allow
for heat indices to run in the 105 to 109 range across the entire
area. The best chance to hit higher heat indices will be across
areas west of I-65 where the ridge is stronger and storms will
hold off long enough to support higher temperatures. BB/03

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An active weather pattern persists across the southeastern U.S.
Tuesday night through Monday. Semi-permanent upper troughing
across the central into northeastern CONUS will keep a weakness
in upper ridging present across the forecast area during the
period. Several weak shortwaves track across the region, allowing
for daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday into Friday appear to be the wettest days as a pair of
shortwaves manage to work their way into the CWA, generating
numerous showers and storms through the day.

Temperatures will be seasonable for the most part as showers and
storms keep afternoon highs a bit more tempered, particularly
Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. Highs will be in the lower
90`s Wednesday and Thursday, with middle to upper 80`s inland
Friday and lower 90`s nearer the coast. The rest of the period
will maintain upper 80`s to lower 90`s Saturday through Monday.
Overnight lows follow a similar trend, going from middle to upper
70`s Tuesday and Wednesday nights to upper 60`s and lower 70`s
over the interior Thursday night through Sunday night with lower
to middle 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of rip currents
remains during the period. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A light southwesterly to westerly flow is expected through
the week.Diurnally driven flow will be present along the nearshore
waters with onshore flow during the afternoon and offshore flow
overnight. There is a chance of thunderstorms each day this week
with favorable conditions for waterspouts in the mornings. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  77  93  76  92  74  89 /  10  50  10  60  20  90  70  80
Pensacola   78  92  79  92  78  91  78  89 /  30  50  20  70  40  90  60  80
Destin      80  91  81  91  81  90  79  89 /  30  50  20  60  40  90  60  80
Evergreen   73  94  74  94  73  92  72  88 /  20  70  10  70  30  90  60  80
Waynesboro  74  95  74  96  74  93  71  87 /  20  50  10  60  30  90  60  80
Camden      73  95  74  95  73  91  70  86 /  20  50  10  60  30  90  60  80
Crestview   75  95  74  94  74  92  73  91 /  20  60  10  70  20  90  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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