874
FXUS62 KMLB 100252
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1052 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Early start to convection today led to an early end. Increase in
low level westerly flow provided some wind energy resulting in
gusty thunderstorm outflows of 40-45 mph across Lake, Seminole,
Orange and Brevard counties. Vero Beach got in on the action as
well, first tying their record high of 96F then receiving a 47 mph
convective wind gust and only getting a Trace of rainfall. The
heaviest rains fell over north Brevard where 2-4" fell from Mims
to Titusville and Canaveral Acres. Only isolated light showers are
left this evening under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages...

-Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms will
 continue through late week.

-Some stronger storms will produce frequent lightning strikes,
 strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

-Highs continue in the low 90s through late week, with heat and
 humidity forecast to increase into the weekend.

Currently-Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and storms have
been off to an early start this afternoon pushing E/SE across
areas from Osceola and Brevard counties northward. Additional
convective development will occur through late afternoon and early
evening across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast,
especially with sea breeze interactions near the I-95 corridor in
this region. Convection will shift offshore with some lingering
debris cloud cover and light rain pushing back westward across the
area through this evening, but rain chances then generally end by
midnight. Despite lower DCAPE values, an increase in low level
winds off the surface is helping generate some gusty winds with
these storms, with strong gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Additional
storm threats include occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
and any slower moving or persistent storms, especially toward the
coast, will lead to locally heavy rainfall. Skies will become
partly cloudy overnight with overnight lows in the 70s.

Wednesday...Offshore flow persists into tomorrow, with some drier
air building in from the west. This decreases PW values to around
1.8-2.0 inches into the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms
will still be able to form, but greatest concentration may focus
toward the coast where the sea breeze is able to develop. Rain
chances range from 40-50 percent inland to 50-60 percent along the
coast. Max temps have come up just a tad, still in the low 90s in
most locations, but some locations may be able to reach the mid
90s. Humid conditions will produce peak heat index values of
102-107.

Thursday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to develop and push inland along the coast
into Thursday afternoon (mainly east of Orlando). Scattered to
numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast into Thursday
afternoon as moisture increases across the area and a weak
disturbance aloft crosses the area. This will increase rain
chances into Thursday, with PoPs ~60-70%. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to move farther inland on Friday with the
greatest chance for sea breeze and boundary collisions over the
interior (PoPs ~ 50-60%). The main lightning storm hazards will
be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to
30-40mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon temperatures will
generally be in the low 90s are forecast with heat index values
between 100-105.

Saturday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) High pressure is expected
to build over the western Atlantic and the state of Florida into
the weekend with 500mb heights reaching 594-597dm. Onshore flow is
forecast to develop with lower rain shower (PoPs ~40-60%) and
storm chances, as well as cloud cover. Excessive heat is forecast
to return with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
index values between 105-110 under partly cloudy to partly sunny
skies. Low temperatures in the low 70s to near 80 degrees are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Lingering -RA and SHRA VRB-SUA will diminish by 02Z or so with VFR
CIGs overnight at all terminals. Light SW flow overnight will pick
up out of the west-northwest at 7-10 knots during Wed. Pop up
showers and storms are possible Wednesday afternoon but coverage
looks lower than today. So will maintain VCTS at KMCO and insert
that at the other terminals in the aftn. A sea breeze should
develop late in the day MLB-SUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers
and storms will continue through late afternoon and evening, with
some producing gusty winds near or in excess of 34 knots and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Otherwise, outside of
storms, boating conditions remain favorable. Winds will be out of
the W/SW around 5-10 knots into tonight into Wednesday morning,
and then become S/SE near the coast as the sea breeze forms
tomorrow afternoon. Seas will range from 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet
offshore of Volusia County. Additional scattered to numerous
showers and storms will focus toward the coast due to sea breeze
interactions and may be able to push just offshore into the
afternoon and evening, producing gusty winds and lightning
strikes.

Thursday-Saturday... Boating conditions remain favorable outside of
lightning storms. Generally light W/SW flow continues on Thursday,
around 5-10 knots, with winds backing to the S/SE near to south of
the Cape in the afternoon. Winds then become southerly on Friday
morning and more predominantly onshore Friday afternoon into the
weekend with subtropical ridge axis gradually lifting northward
across the waters. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

Scattered offshore moving showers and lighting storms capable of
gusty winds and occasional to frequent lighting strikes will
continue to be possible into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  91 /  30  60  30  70
MCO  77  93  78  89 /  30  50  20  70
MLB  76  92  76  89 /  40  60  30  70
VRB  74  92  75  90 /  50  60  30  60
LEE  78  93  79  90 /  30  40  20  60
SFB  77  93  77  90 /  30  50  20  70
ORL  78  93  79  90 /  30  50  20  70
FPR  75  92  75  90 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly