791
FXUS62 KMLB 160153
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
953 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The heavy shower and storm activity across portions of St. Lucie,
Martin and Okeechobee counties has since dissipated, with isolated
convection across much of the rest of ECFL and the adjacent coastal
waters. Greatest chance for convection overnight will be cross the
Treasure Coast where moisture is highest and may have to monitor
for additional locally heavy rainfall here, especially if it falls
over areas that saw heavy rainfall this past day. The former weak
surface frontal boundary associated with the earlier heavy
rainfall is now south of our coverage warning area. A drier
airmass will slowly infiltrate from the north late overnight as
PWATs gradually fall.

Breezy and gusty northeast winds will diminish gradually this
evening, with speeds falling to 5-10 mph overnight. Temperatures
will remain warm overnight, with mins M-U70s under thinning sky
cover - especially northward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Overnight-Fri...Expect deteriorating boating conditions tonight
through Fri. Breezy northeast winds of 15-20 KT across the
offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet this evening. This
elevated onshore flow combined with increasing swells from distant
Hurricane Ernesto will build seas up to 4-6 feet by daybreak Fri
morning across the near shore waters where boaters should Exercise
Caution overnight.

While northeast winds will diminish to 10-15 knots overnight, longer
period swells (up to 12-14 sec) will increase across the waters late
tonight into Fri, with seas increasing up to 7 to 8 feet offshore. A
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through 8 PM on Fri due to
these hazardous seas. However, this will likely need to be extended
into at least Fri night. The long period swells will also lead to
hazardous boating conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide on
Fri/Fri night.

Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue across the
waters this evening, with decreased coverage north of Sebastian
Inlet, then decreasing coverage areawide into Fri as drier air
builds into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

After a lull in activity late this afternoon and early evening,
expect some additional onshore moving convection later this
evening and overnight, especially Cape southward where moisture
remains highest. Have "Vicinity" wording in for shower activity
this evening KMLB southward and may need to add TEMPO groups as
appropriate. Still mainly VFR conds outside of convection into
Fri. Drier air moves into the region late overnight into Fri
promoting much below normal precip chances. Onshore flow will pick
up again on Fri, with breezy/gusty conds developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  73  88 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  76  90  72  91 /  20  10   0  10
MLB  78  88  76  88 /  20  20   0  10
VRB  77  89  73  89 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  74  91  71  91 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  75  90  72  91 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  76  91  73  92 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  77  88  73  89 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock