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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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791 FXUS62 KMLB 160153 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 953 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The heavy shower and storm activity across portions of St. Lucie, Martin and Okeechobee counties has since dissipated, with isolated convection across much of the rest of ECFL and the adjacent coastal waters. Greatest chance for convection overnight will be cross the Treasure Coast where moisture is highest and may have to monitor for additional locally heavy rainfall here, especially if it falls over areas that saw heavy rainfall this past day. The former weak surface frontal boundary associated with the earlier heavy rainfall is now south of our coverage warning area. A drier airmass will slowly infiltrate from the north late overnight as PWATs gradually fall. Breezy and gusty northeast winds will diminish gradually this evening, with speeds falling to 5-10 mph overnight. Temperatures will remain warm overnight, with mins M-U70s under thinning sky cover - especially northward. && .MARINE... Issued at 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Overnight-Fri...Expect deteriorating boating conditions tonight through Fri. Breezy northeast winds of 15-20 KT across the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet this evening. This elevated onshore flow combined with increasing swells from distant Hurricane Ernesto will build seas up to 4-6 feet by daybreak Fri morning across the near shore waters where boaters should Exercise Caution overnight. While northeast winds will diminish to 10-15 knots overnight, longer period swells (up to 12-14 sec) will increase across the waters late tonight into Fri, with seas increasing up to 7 to 8 feet offshore. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through 8 PM on Fri due to these hazardous seas. However, this will likely need to be extended into at least Fri night. The long period swells will also lead to hazardous boating conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide on Fri/Fri night. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue across the waters this evening, with decreased coverage north of Sebastian Inlet, then decreasing coverage areawide into Fri as drier air builds into the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 After a lull in activity late this afternoon and early evening, expect some additional onshore moving convection later this evening and overnight, especially Cape southward where moisture remains highest. Have "Vicinity" wording in for shower activity this evening KMLB southward and may need to add TEMPO groups as appropriate. Still mainly VFR conds outside of convection into Fri. Drier air moves into the region late overnight into Fri promoting much below normal precip chances. Onshore flow will pick up again on Fri, with breezy/gusty conds developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 88 73 88 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 76 90 72 91 / 20 10 0 10 MLB 78 88 76 88 / 20 20 0 10 VRB 77 89 73 89 / 30 20 10 10 LEE 74 91 71 91 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 75 90 72 91 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 76 91 73 92 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 77 88 73 89 / 30 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572- 575. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Sedlock