289
FXUS62 KMLB 150204
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1004 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light debris cloud rainfall near to west of Orlando will gradually
diminish through midnight. Radar was showing a weak outflow
boundary still pushing southeast through Okeechobee County, which
may be able to lead to a brief shower or two across this region
over the next couple hours. Otherwise, no additional showers or
storms are expected overnight over land, with only isolated
showers possible over the coastal waters tonight. However, GOES-16
TPW imagery shows drier air already pushing in from the east
across the Treasure Coast waters, so this should help limit any
shower redevelopment over the waters through late tonight.

Temperatures have already fallen to the mid to upper 70s across
the interior where greater coverage of showers and storms
occurred. Temps will remain fairly stationary for the remainder of
the night across this region, while temps along the coast,
currently in the low to mid 80s will also see lows in the mid to
upper 70s later tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Storms and lingering debris cloud rainfall along to northwest of
the I-4 corridor will gradually diminish through late evening.
Despite some -RA and stray lightning strikes from this much of
this activity, VFR conditions should prevail. No additional shower
or thunderstorm development expected overnight, except for
isolated showers that may still be able to redevelop over the
coastal waters through early morning. Some drier air will begin to
move in from the east later tonight, moving into the Treasure
Coast region by daybreak. Earlier onset of the sea breeze in this
area from KVRB-KSUA and the drier air should limit any
shower/storm development at these sites tomorrow.

However, scattered to numerous showers and storms should still be
able to develop along the inland moving sea breeze boundaries and
any collisions across the interior through the afternoon/early
evening hours. Have VCTS mentioned for KDAB-KMLB and across all
inland TAF sites. Will likely need to add tempo TSRA groups for
inland sites with next TAF package, where greatest potential for
this activity is forecast tomorrow afternoon, roughly between
20-00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Rather tranquil marine weather persists as a ridge of surface high
pressure extends westward into the local Atlantic through this week.
Isolated showers and storms are forecast, but long stretches dry
weather are likely. Southeast winds 5-12 KT through at least mid-
week, except ESE 10-15 KT nearshore in the afternoon as the sea
breeze forms. Seas 2-3 FT, except up to 4 FT well offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet through early Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  20  60  20  40
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  50  60  20  50
MLB  78  91  76  90 /  10  40  10  30
VRB  77  92  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
LEE  75  95  78  95 /  50  70  40  50
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  40  60  30  50
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  50  60  30  50
FPR  77  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich