Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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537 FXUS62 KMLB 050056 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 856 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 819 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Scattered showers and storms ongoing, mainly in from LEE southward. Activity is diminishing, should dissipate or move out of the area over the next hour or two. Have included TEMPO for LEE through 1Z. Otherwise, dry overnight with light and variable winds at all terminals. Light winds will become northeast and increase to 5-10KT by late morning, becoming easterly in the afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. VCTS for all inland terminals and VCSH for all coastal terminals starting at 17Z. Activity should diminish shortly after sundown. Winds will become light and variable once again Friday night. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through this holiday weekend. Residents and visitors will need to take extra precautions to prevent heat-related illness. - Daily chances for showers and storms will be higher over interior sections, much lower along the coast Friday and Saturday. Storm coverage will increase early next week. Thru tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will continue to develop along the inland moving sea breeze. Late morning Cape sounding shows H5 temps just -3.9C which is quite warm and will suppress updrafts except where boundary collisions occur which will result in a few stronger storms, capable of intense rainfall and frequent lightning strikes. Storm motion will be toward the south while the outflow and sea breeze propagate westward. Storms over the interior are forecast to end around or shortly after sunset and allow fireworks displays to go on with little if any delay. Coastal communities will remain dry. Friday-Sunday (previous)...The overall pattern goes largely unchanged late week into the weekend, with mid level ridging overhead and diurnal rain/storms driven by the east coast sea breeze. One hindrance to higher PoPs, especially later Friday through Saturday, will be a lobe of drier air that splits off from a mid level low over the western Atlantic. This pocket of lower moisture looks to stick around through Saturday, especially closer to the coast, keeping the highest rain chances focused inland as the sea breeze advances west each afternoon. Moisture return and southerly flow begins to erode the lower PW on Sunday, helping to reinvigorate rain and storm chances. Daytime temperatures stay hot in the low to mid 90s with heat indices 102-107+. The warmest locations will be inland, and additional heat advisories may need to be considered this weekend into early next week. Nighttime lows only fall into the mid to upper 70s. Monday-Wednesday (Previous)...Upper level ridging weakens a bit next week but maintains its influence on our weather pattern. As a tropical wave pushes west across the Carribean and Yucatan Monday, relatively lower PWs wrap northward in its wake, across southern FL and the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, near 2" PW hold over north-central FL. Low-level flow over our area becomes more southerly, perhaps even SSW, on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, 40-60 PoP was maintained in the extended period. Confidence lowers somewhat by midweek in rain chances, so PoPs were kept in the chance category Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance keeps highs in the low to mid 90s through early week, with perhaps a slight downward trend due to rain chances and associated cloud cover. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions this holiday weekend within a weak pressure gradient environment supporting light and variable winds, with the sea breeze enhancing the onshore flow each afternoon at 8-10 knots. Seas 2-3 ft thru early next week. Rain and lightning storm chances will be below normal through Saturday then southerly flow and increased moisture returns Sunday and Monday which will increase rain chances. Offshore flow is forecast to develop by mid week with storms pushing offshore late in the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 75 93 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 77 93 76 95 / 30 60 10 40 MLB 78 91 76 92 / 10 30 10 30 VRB 76 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 40 LEE 78 95 77 95 / 50 60 10 50 SFB 77 94 76 95 / 20 40 10 40 ORL 78 94 77 95 / 30 60 10 40 FPR 76 91 76 92 / 10 40 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Kelly