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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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055 FXUS62 KMLB 280450 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 IMPACT: - Numerous afternoon/evening storms expected beyond 28/18Z. Restrictions to IFR, gusts to 35 KT possible. Quiet weather is forecast through the overnight. A few showers may impact LEE as early as 13Z. Sea breeze looks to penetrate a bit farther inland this afternoon, sparking 60-70% storm coverage from mid-afternoon through early evening. Storms will likely affect the Greater Orlando area terminals and DAB first before drifting/developing toward MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA from 19Z-29/00Z. Prevailing VFR outside of storms, with SW winds 5-12 KT becoming ESE in the afternoon at the coastal terminals. TSRA TEMPOs were required at all local area TAF sites. && .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Rest of Tonight...A rather active pattern this afternoon brought numerous strong thunderstorms with a few severe warned cells to east central FL. Driven by multiple boundary and sea breeze collisions, storm motion was erratic but generally moved from the west to the east. Highest observed winds were recorded at Cape Canaveral above 50 mph, with another complex of boundaries colliding near the site of the KMLB radar this afternoon. This prompted a brief funnel cloud to develop and unconfirmed tornado (as of 9pm), with multiple reports of damage shared from nearby neighborhoods in Melbourne. The collision has continued southward along the intracoastal waters this evening, arriving to the Treasure Coast currently. While storms have lost daytime heating, a few still could be rather strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the continued potential of a brief spin up as activity moves offshore. Storms will dissipate by midnight, with quiet conditions forecast overnight. Lows will fall to the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 92 76 / 60 30 60 40 MCO 93 77 92 76 / 60 20 60 30 MLB 92 77 90 76 / 50 40 50 40 VRB 93 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 30 LEE 93 78 93 78 / 60 20 60 40 SFB 93 77 93 76 / 60 30 60 40 ORL 93 78 92 77 / 60 20 60 40 FPR 93 75 90 75 / 50 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Heil