485
FXUS62 KMLB 290519
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
119 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

IMPACT:
- Numerous afternoon and evening storms expected on Saturday; VIS
  restrictions to IFR & frequent lightning near storm cores.

VFR conditions persist early this morning at all terminals. If
skies sufficiently clear, will watch for patchy ground fog.
Another round of storms is forecast today with 40-60% coverage
near the coast increasing to 60-80% over the Greater Orlando
terminals (KMCO). Storm initiation after 29/17Z with greatest
coverage 29/19Z-23Z. TS TEMPOs in place for a majority of our
terminals save for DAB/VRB/FPR/SUA where sea breeze may penetrate
just enough inland to keep more widespread storms just to the
west. Close call on that; will monitor guidance trends in future
TAF updates. Lt/vrb winds through mid-morning, becoming E/ENE this
afternoon < 12 KT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A pretty rainy afternoon for east central Florida. Radar
estimates show just about everyone got a 1/4 inch of rain, with
the exception of a band from Deltona to Holopaw that saw lower
amounts. Many areas got 2 inches or more, and upwards of 4-5
inches of rain fell across much of the southern counties. Made
some adjustments to PoPs through the evening based on trends and
latest HRRR, keeping them 50-60 pct across the interior through
about 9 PM. Rest of the forecast held up well with no significant
changes needed. Still seeing deep convection down south in Palm
Beach County, which could creep its way back north into Martin
through the next couple hours, so keeping PoPs down there 30 pct
until midnight. Otherwise, the last of the debris showers should
dissipate by 11 PM (most sooner), with mostly quiet conditions the
rest of the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will shift slightly northward
across South Florida into tonight. S/SW flow has shifted SE/S this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to S/SW
overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft
across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters.
Scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible through the overnight, especially in the
offshore waters.

Saturday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of
high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the
waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each
morning will become onshore into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze
generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain
over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will
still be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  76  91  76 /  60  40  40  30
MCO  91  76  91  76 /  70  30  60  30
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  90  76  90  74 /  50  30  40  30
LEE  93  77  93  77 /  70  30  60  30
SFB  92  76  92  76 /  70  30  60  30
ORL  93  77  92  76 /  70  30  60  30
FPR  90  76  90  74 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Heil