336
FXUS62 KMLB 131412
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1012 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Partly cloudy skies across ECFL this morning with KMLB 88D only
showing ISOLD convection over the local coastal waters and along the
WCFL coast. Temperatures already in the 80s with dewpoints well into
the 70s as we endure yet another hot/humid day. Surface heating and
adequate moisture will combine with future boundary collisions to
promote SCT-NMRS showers/lightning storms this afternoon and
evening. Both sea breezes (west-east) will be active and provide
strongest convection late today across the eastern/central FL
peninsula. Movement is forecast slow to the north, but expect some
erratic movement with larger boundary collisions. Primary storm
threats continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to
around 40 mph locally, and torrential downpours leading to minor and
nuisance flooding. Activity will diminish thru mid-late evening with
clouds thinning overnight. Winds generally light/variable, esp over
the interior, but will transition to ESE/SE with sea breeze passage.

Highs should top out in the L-M90s with peak Heat Indices in the 103-
107 range areawide, staying just below Heat Advisory criteria.
Overnight lows mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue outside of convection. The
east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop today, with some
showers possible along the Treasure Coast terminals after 15Z.
VCTS will be possible along the coastal terminals after 17Z along
the sea breeze as it moves inland. A sea breeze collision later
this afternoon will serve as the primary driver for convective
development across the interior after 18Z, with TEMPOs for MVFR
VIS/CIG due to TSRA added in with this package between 20-23Z.
Activity is forecast to diminish after 03Z, with winds becoming
light and variable to calm overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
build over the local waters today, causing the winds to become south-
southeast, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form and push inland this afternoon,
increasing winds to 10-15 KT. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Scattered showers
and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, some
storms could produce wind guests in excess of 34 KT and locally
higher seas.

Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions outside of
convection expected through mid-week. South to southeast winds will
persist through the time period, with speeds generally around 10 KT.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, which
will back the winds more east-southeast and increase the winds to 10-
15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on Sunday and Monday. Scattered
showers and lightning storms will be possible each afternoon and
into early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  93  76 /  50  30  50  30
MCO  94  77  95  77 /  70  20  70  20
MLB  91  77  91  77 /  40  30  40  20
VRB  91  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
LEE  94  79  94  78 /  70  20  70  30
SFB  95  77  94  77 /  70  20  70  20
ORL  95  78  95  78 /  70  20  70  20
FPR  91  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen