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FXUS62 KMLB 140852
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
452 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Typical summertime pattern will persist through this week, with
  showers and storms possible each afternoon. The highest coverage
  of showers and storms will be across the interior.

- Warm temperatures persist with highs in the low to mid 90s and a
  Moderate to Major Heat Risk each afternoon. Be sure to use
  caution if spending extended periods of time outdoors, and take
  frequent breaks and remain well hydrated!

Current...Winds remain light across east central Florida this
morning, with some places going completely calm. A few isolated
showers and storms have developed across the local Atlantic
waters, and this activity will likely persist over the next few
hours. Across the peninsula, mostly dry conditions will continue,
with skies remaining mostly clear. Morning lows are still forecast
to be in the mid to upper 70s.

Today-Tonight...Weak ridging will persist across the peninsula
today, with the ridge axis remaining draped across central
Florida. This will result in south-southwest winds north of
Orlando and the Cape and southeast winds across the remainder of
east central Florida. Winds will remain relatively light through
the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon, with
minimal cloud coverage allowing for sufficient daytime heating.
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s once
again today across east central Florida, with peak heat indices
reaching 102 to 107. The light winds combined with the temperature
gradient between the peninsula and local Atlantic waters will
promote the development of the east coast sea breeze this
afternoon. Light steering flow aloft will allow the sea breeze to
move inland, interacting with sufficient moisture present locally
(PWATs 2"+ across the area). This will lead to the development of
scattered to numerous showers and storms, with the highest
coverage expected across the interior west of I-95 due to the sea
breeze collision and any subsequent boundary collisions. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and heavy downpours.
Localized flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas cannot be
ruled out. Activity is expected to diminish into the overnight
hours, with some lingering showers and storms possible across the
local Atlantic waters. Cloud coverage is forecast to diminish
overnight, with warm and muggy conditions persisting due to lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Saturday...The ridge across the peninsula is forecast to
remain in place through mid week, with the ridge axis remaining
draped across central Florida. Mid-level troughing is then
forecast to dig into the southeastern US Thursday into the
weekend, which will shift the surface high further eastward,
causing winds to become more southerly. This will not change the
overall summertime pattern though. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to develop each afternoon and move inland, with a sea
breeze collision across the interior resulting in increased
coverage of showers and storms. The highest coverage will remain
across the interior west of I-95. Activity will tend to diminish
into the overnight hours, with continued showers and storms
possible across the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures will
continue to be warm, with afternoon highs generally in the low to
mid 90s and peak heat indices in the 100 to 107 range. Overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Today-Tonight...Weak ridging will persist across the local
Atlantic waters. Winds will remain light out of the southwest
north of the Cape and out of the south-southeast south of the Cape
at 5 to 10 knots. Winds closer to the coast will become
southeasterly as the east coast sea breeze develops this
afternoon, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in spots. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible across the local Atlantic
waters, with the main storm threats being lightning strikes, gusty
winds 30 to 35 knots, and heavy downpours. Activity will persist
into the overnight hours. Seas remaining between 2 to 4 feet.

Monday-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast to continue through this week. Ridging across the local
Atlantic waters will persist, with winds remaining out of the
south-southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Locally higher wind speeds
between 10 to 15 knots will be possible closer to the coast due
to the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon.
Seas will remain generally between 2 to 4 feet through this week.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon into
the overnight hours, with storm threats mainly being lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds will become SSE and increase to 5-8 KT by mid
morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the
afternoon, backing the winds E/SE and increasing the winds to
around 10 KT. VCTS starts around 18Z for all terminals except MLB,
which starts at 21Z. Have maintained TEMPOS for TIX northward,
starting at 18/20Z, and for MLB starting at 21Z. Showers and
storms should dissipate or move out of the local area a little
after sunset. Light and variable winds once again Sunday
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  75 /  60  20  50  20
MCO  94  76  95  76 /  60  20  60  10
MLB  90  77  90  77 /  50  10  40  20
VRB  92  76  92  76 /  40  10  40  20
LEE  94  77  95  78 /  70  20  70  20
SFB  94  77  94  77 /  60  20  60  10
ORL  95  77  95  78 /  60  20  60  10
FPR  92  76  91  75 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson