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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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312 FXUS62 KMLB 160604 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 204 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Similar setup tomorrow as drier air south of KMLB and faster inland movement of the east coast sea breeze keeping rain chances very limited from KVRB-KSUA. Isolated showers and storms may develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea breeze forms in the early afternoon, but greatest convective coverage will be across inland TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea breeze moves inland and where boundary interactions are more likely. Maintained VCTS at MLB and added TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA at DAB/TIX/MCO/SFB/LEE from 20Z-23Z. Winds becoming S to SE 5-6 knots after sunrise backing E/SE around 10 knots behind the sea breeze aft 16Z at coastal terminals. Diurnal convection should diminish by 02-03Z followed by a quiet/VFR overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Light rain from previous convection along the I-4 corridor will diminish by late evening, as will lingering shower/isolated storm activity across southern Osceola and northern Okeechobee counties. Mostly dry conditions then expected overnight, except for along the Treasure Coast where isolated onshore moving showers will continue to be possible overnight. Additional isolated showers and storms may continue to develop over the gulf stream waters after midnight through early morning Tuesday. Similar to last night, interior locations that saw the greatest coverage of showers and storms, as well as Volusia County will see temps remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 70s for the reminder of the night. Farther south across Okeechobee County and along much of the coast temps are currently in the low to mid 80s, but will see these values drop to the mid to upper 70s as well overnight. Debris cloud cover will gradually fade with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Boating conditions remain favorable over the next few days. As high pressure holds sway, light southerly winds at night turn SE during the day, increasing to 10-15 KT, especially near the coast with the sea breeze. There is a 20-40% chance for showers and isolated storms, primarily during the overnight and morning hours. Seas generally 2-3 FT, occasionally up to 4 FT beyond 40 NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 93 76 / 60 30 40 10 MCO 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 MLB 90 76 91 78 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 92 75 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 LEE 94 77 94 78 / 70 30 60 10 SFB 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 ORL 94 77 95 78 / 70 30 40 10 FPR 92 74 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Kelly