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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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676 FXUS62 KMLB 161256 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 856 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 853 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL peninsula. The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon and combined with deep moisture, surface heating, and boundary collisions - expect SCT-NMRS showers and lightning storms reaching peak coverage and intensity in the late afternoon and early evening. Greatest chances will be west of I-95 and Cape northward. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph locally, and heavy downpours. The slow/erratic movement of storms could lead to a quick 1 to 3 inch rainfall total in spots. Minor/nuisance flooding may result in these areas or any locations that have recently seen abundant rainfall. Activity is forecast to diminish thru mid to late evening with clouds thinning overnight. The heat continues to be a primary concern with forecast highs continuing in the L-M90s and peak heat indices reaching 102-107F. HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether there is an elevated risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to Major across east central Florida. Everyone should continue to take action to prevent heat-related illness, including taking frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of time outdoors as well as remaining well-hydrated. Warm and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight hours, with lows only dropping into the M-U70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 740 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Isold SHRA lifting north this morning may affect KSUA-KVRB. Then Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea breeze forms in the early afternoon, while greatest convective coverage will be across inland TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea breeze moves inland and where boundary interactions are more likely. Maintained VCTS at MLB and added TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA at DAB/TIX/MCO/SFB/LEE from 20Z-23Z. Winds becoming S to SE 5-6 knots after sunrise backing E/SE around 10 knots behind the sea breeze aft 16Z at coastal terminals. Diurnal convection should diminish by 02-03Z followed by a quiet/VFR overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic. Winds will remain between 5 to 10 knots out of the south, becoming slightly stronger at 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast as the sea breeze develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the period, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 93 76 / 60 30 40 10 MCO 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 MLB 90 76 91 78 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 92 75 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 LEE 94 77 94 78 / 70 30 60 10 SFB 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 ORL 94 77 95 78 / 70 30 40 10 FPR 92 74 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Kelly