976
FXUS62 KMLB 162355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Lingering outflow boundary pushing southeast through the Treasure
Coast may produce brief gusts out of the NW up to 20 knots at
KVRB-KFPR. However, any additional shower/storm development along
this boundary is not forecast, as it is moving into a drier
airmass. Light rain will diminish over the next hour or two from
KTIX northward, with rest of the night remaining mostly dry. Still
can`t rule out an isolated onshore moving shower or two along the
coast, south of KVRB. However, potential is too low to include
any mention in the TAFs for now.

Drier airmass building into southern portions of east central
Florida will again keep rain chances limited along the coast from
KMLB southward tomorrow. However, scattered shower and storm
development is still forecast near to northwest of the I-4
corridor where greater moisture will still exist. Have VCTS
mentioned in the TAFs from around 18z-00Z for KISM-KTIX
northward.

Light and variable winds overnight will become S/SE around 5-7
knots in the morning, and then switching the E/SE with the inland
moving east coast sea breeze to around 10 knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Highest coverage of afternoon-evening lightning storms across the
interior...

...Heat remains a concern through the extended combined with high
humidity, producing peak heat indices from 102 to 110 over the next
several days...

...Increasing moisture late this week and into the weekend will keep
coverage of showers and storms high across the interior...

Current-Tonight...The heat continues to be a primary concern with
highs in the L-M90s and peak heat indices reaching 102-107F.
HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether there is an elevated
risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to Major across east
central Florida. Everyone should continue to take action to prevent
heat-related illness, including taking frequent breaks in the shade
or in an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of
time outdoors as well as remaining well-hydrated.

Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL
peninsula. The ECSB will continue to push inland this afternoon and
evening. The combination of deep moisture, surface heating, and
boundary collisions will promote SCT-NMRS showers and lightning
storms reaching peak coverage and intensity in the late afternoon
and early evening. Greatest chances will be west of I-95 and Cape
northward. Primary storm threats remain frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph locally, and heavy downpours. The
slow/erratic movement of storms could lead to a quick 1 to 3 inch
rainfall total in spots. Minor/nuisance flooding may result in these
areas or any locations that have recently seen abundant rainfall.
Activity is forecast to diminish thru mid to late evening with
clouds thinning overnight.

Warm and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight hours,
with lows only dropping into the M-U70s.

Wednesday...Drier air will infiltrate from the south during the day
with PWATs forecast 1.00-1.40 inches across the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County. Northward, PWATs will trend upward ranging from
2.00-2.10 inches north/west of I-4. As a result, expect lower
convective coverage southward - 20-30pct south of a Brevard-central
Osceola County line, with 30-55pct north thru Lake/NW Volusia
counties. Surface high pressure ridging will remain situated across
the central FL peninsula. We will still see inland movement of the
afternoon sea breeze with late day boundary collisions across the
interior and normal diurnal time-frame for activity to diminish
in the evening. High temps still forecast in the L-M90s with peak
heat indices 102-107F areawide. The Moderate to Major HeatRisk
will remain in place across the area, so continued caution will be
needed if spending extended periods of times outdoors. Overnight
lows remaining in the M-U70s.

Thursday-Monday...Previous Modified...High pressure across the
western Atlantic will be the main influence across the Florida
peninsula. The ridging will gradually lift from central FL northward
this weekend and into early next week. Moisture is forecast to
recover across east central Florida, leading to increasing rain and
storm chances each afternoon/evening as the sea breeze develops and
moves inland, with an eventual collision across the interior
producing the highest coverage. This pattern is expected to continue
late this week into early next week. Activity will diminish into the
overnight hours across the peninsula, with lingering showers and
storms remaining possible across the local waters each night.

Heat will remain a concern, with temperatures appearing to peak on
Thursday and Friday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s and
dropping back into the low to mid 90s this weekend through
Monday. These temperatures will combine with humidity to produce
peak heat indices in the 102 to 110 range. We will monitor the need
for Heat Advisories each day. Additionally, HeatRisk is expected to
become Extreme across portions of Lake, Orange, and Seminole
counties Thursday through Saturday, with Moderate to Major impacts
elsewhere and on Sunday and Monday. This means extra caution will
need to be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses, and time outside
will potentially need to be limited. Little relief will be granted
during the overnight hours, with conditions remaining warm and muggy
thanks to lows only dropping into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Through Sat...Persistent pattern with low-level ridging across
the local waters, potentially lifting a bit north late in the
period. This will continue to produce generally favorable boating
conditions. Wind direction generally S/SW at night/morning,
backing SERLY each day with sea breeze formation. Wind speeds AOB
15 kts thru the period. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and locally higher
invof lightning storms. ISOLD to SCT showers/storms will favor the
evening and overnight-early morning hour periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  20  50  10  40
MCO  75  95  77  96 /  20  40  10  60
MLB  76  91  77  92 /  30  10  10  50
VRB  75  92  77  92 /  20  10  10  50
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  20  50  10  60
SFB  76  94  77  96 /  20  40  10  50
ORL  77  95  77  96 /  20  40  10  60
FPR  75  91  76  92 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich