273
FXUS63 KMKX 162005
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few patches of fog possible tonight across the west.

- Isolated to scattered showers possible during the afternoon
  hours Wednesday, particularly along the lake.

- Pleasant weather prevails from late week through the beginning
  of the weekend, with zero precipitation and low humidity
  expected.

- Next window of opportunity for showers and storms arrives late
  Sunday through the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Diurnal cu expected to decrease as we lose our sunlight this
evening but with models indicating a weak boundary sliding
through later this afternoon into the evening we may see a very
slight chance at a shower (~10%) but should largely remain dry.
Clouds will clear into the evening with drier air in the
midlevels through the night.

Into Wednesday, with the upper trough located across SE Canada
through the Great Lakes region will slide some PVA through the
region but given the midlevel dry air through the region that
forcing will struggle to produce much in the way of precip on
its own. However models indicate at least a decent chance (~25%)
of some showers and perhaps even a weak storm (<10%) located
primarily along the lake with some surface convergence and some
moisture coming from off the lake. These would largely hug the
lake in the afternoon with no real inland probabilities. Into
the evening precip chances will end.

Otherwise a few patches of fog to the west could be expected
tonight with cooler conditions in addition to the rather wet
conditions we have had of late

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

High pressure will push in across the western Great Lakes by
Thursday, with large scale models showing modest ridging
through Friday. Much of the long term period will feature light
and variable surface winds, partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies, and dry conditions. Into the weekend there will be
increased chances for showers and storms as weak ridging breaks
down and the high pressure begins to slide out but dry air seems
to fight much of the precip chances through the weekend
associated with most of the precip chances largely associated
with fairly weak forcing. Thus the entire extended period may
remain more than likely dry with the best chances coming late
Saturday into Monday with a weak upper low sitting over the
central US.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Conditions will quiet into this evening though with another
boundary further north we cannot rule out a brief shower.
Diurnal cu continue across southern WI but will be expected to
dissipate into the evening as we lose our sunlight. Into
Wednesday quiet conditions would be expected for most of the day
with a chance for some showers located right along the lake in
the afternoon. Otherwise quiet conditions expected for the TAF
period with VFR CIGS expected through tomorrow regardless of the
afternoon shower chances near the lake. Light northwest winds
through the period other than near the lake which will likely
experience an easterly component Wednesday along the lake breezy
boundary.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Winds have turned northwesterly across much of the open waters
today as the aforementioned cold front slides out but far southern
parts of the lake have still not seen the front push through as it
slowly slides south this afternoon. Most of the showers/storms
associated with the front are over land but a few of these could
be expected to slide into the open waters region. This will end by
the early evening as the front slides out with largely light to
modest north winds across the lake. Winds will become light and
variable through late week as high pressure builds in from the
Great Plains.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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