Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
755 FXUS63 KMKX 170242 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 942 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog tonight across the west. - Isolated showers possible Wednesday afternoon along the lake. - Pleasant weather with low humidity and no rain chances Wednesday night into the first half of the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 942 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Quiet weather conditions expected tonight into early Wednesday as northwest winds gradually deliver and cooler and drier airmass. Band of mid level clouds will move out of the area during the overnight hours, and we could see a rogue shower or two out of that deck, though most will remain dry. Clearing skies overnight will allow for patchy low lying fog over western areas. Weak signals for a few showers along the lake front continue for tomorrow afternoon, though confidence is low. Dewpoints will continue to gradually fall, resulting in a more comfortable airmass compared to the last several days. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected under a mix of sun and clouds. Gagan && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: Diurnal cu expected to decrease as we lose our sunlight this evening but with models indicating a weak boundary sliding through later this afternoon into the evening we may see a very slight chance at a shower (~10%) but should largely remain dry. Clouds will clear into the evening with drier air in the midlevels through the night. Into Wednesday, with the upper trough located across SE Canada through the Great Lakes region will slide some PVA through the region but given the midlevel dry air through the region that forcing will struggle to produce much in the way of precip on its own. However models indicate at least a decent chance (~25%) of some showers and perhaps even a weak storm (<10%) located primarily along the lake with some surface convergence and some moisture coming from off the lake. These would largely hug the lake in the afternoon with no real inland probabilities. Into the evening precip chances will end. Otherwise a few patches of fog to the west could be expected tonight with cooler conditions in addition to the rather wet conditions we have had of late Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: High pressure will push in across the western Great Lakes by Thursday, with large scale models showing modest ridging through Friday. Much of the long term period will feature light and variable surface winds, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and dry conditions. Into the weekend there will be increased chances for showers and storms as weak ridging breaks down and the high pressure begins to slide out but dry air seems to fight much of the precip chances through the weekend associated with most of the precip chances largely associated with fairly weak forcing. Thus the entire extended period may remain more than likely dry with the best chances coming late Saturday into Monday with a weak upper low sitting over the central US. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 942 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as a cooler and drier airmass gradually spreads over the region. Northwest winds are expected through the period, with occasional gusts tomorrow late morning through the afternoon. Lingering weak cyclonic flow will support a scattered VFR deck tomorrow (roughly around 5000 ft level), with a low risk for a few showers along the lakefront. Skies will clear after sunset Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Gagan && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Winds have turned northwesterly across much of the open waters today as the aforementioned cold front slides out but far southern parts of the lake have still not seen the front push through as it slowly slides south this afternoon. Most of the showers/storms associated with the front are over land but a few of these could be expected to slide into the open waters region. This will end by the early evening as the front slides out with largely light to modest north winds across the lake. Winds will become light and variable through late week as high pressure builds in from the Great Plains. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee