Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
561 FXUS63 KMKX 170838 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers possible this afternoon along the lake. - Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today through Thursday: An upper trough sliding across Ontario and Lake Superior continues to drive our weather for now. Dewpoints are hovering around 60 and temps are in the mid to upper 60s. There are some high-based light showers and sprinkles over central WI early this morning and these are due to a weak shortwave rotating around that upper trough. One last shortwave trough will swing through central WI midday through late afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion around 10kft due to subsidence. This means we can expect a good amount of diurnal cu with a fairly shallow depth. The only area with potentially enough surface convergence/forcing to allow for a few showers should be right along the lakeshore where a weak lake breeze will be hanging out. Expecting enough of a northwest breeze too keep that lake breeze from getting very far inland today. We should see clearing skies tonight but that upper trough will still be slowly exiting, so a few mid level clouds are probable. Lows should drop into the mid 50s overnight. Patchy river fog is possible once again. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: The upper trough will finally exit the Great Lakes by Thursday morning and allow for high pressure to be in control over the next few days. Look for plenty of sunshine with some scattered diurnal cu each afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s can be expected Thu into Fri with the dry air mass overhead. A weak upper trough is expected to set up over the Plains on Saturday and sit there through early next week. With very weak flow aloft, this is a good setup for diurnal showers and a few thunderstorms over the Plains. We will continue to be dry through Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are possible. That pattern will continue over south central and to a lesser extent, southeast WI, through Tuesday. We will see a gradual rise in temps into the lower 80s, which is right around normal for this time of year. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR diurnal cumulus clouds are expected from late morning through early evening. A few showers are possible along the lakeshore, forced by weak surface convergence along the lake breeze. That lake breeze is not expected to move inland today due to a steady northwest breeze. Patchy fog will be possible in river valleys tonight, especially west of Madison. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A few showers will linger over Lake Michigan this morning, primarily in the north. High pressure will slowly move southward out of central Canada and into the Upper Midwest tonight. This will end any lingering isolated rain shower chances and deliver northerly winds and a cooler, drier airmass. This high will dominate our weather regime into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee