Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
055 FXUS63 KMKX 180901 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate Swim Risk for Milwaukee and Racine Counties until 10 AM for waves up to 3 feet. - Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. - River flooding will continue for slow-responding locations at local rivers into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Today through Friday: Moderate swim risk will persist into the mid morning hours on the beaches of Milwaukee and Racine county at and northwest of Wind Point. Caution is urged due to waves approaching 3 feet and localized dangerous currents. High pressure will be in control today. Expect scattered cumulus clouds with a little less coverage than yesterday and highs in the mid 70s. A lake breeze will make inland to around the Milwaukee/Waukesha county line and this will be the area with a little extra cloud coverage, but not expecting showers today. Look for lows in the mid 50s tonight and some patchy fog in river valleys and low spots. Friday will be a repeat of today, except with a few more cu and highs in the upper 70s. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Saturday through Wednesday: A weak upper trough will settle over the Midwest, particularly over Iowa, on Saturday. It is expected to sit over IA/IL/southwest WI through Tuesday. Surface high pressure will remain in place over southern WI as well, and the low level temperature profile will be consistent through the Sat-Tue period (highs in the lower 80s and lows around 60). In addition, a weak low level boundary or very weak shortwave energy (there is a signal the GFS is picking up on) may sag into far northern WI Saturday afternoon, then eventually into southern WI Monday afternoon. With this weak cyclonic flow over the region, we can expect diurnally driven chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. Shear will be very weak, so this means that any showers/storms that develop will be weak and tend to propagate along their outflow boundaries, or also that potential weak low level boundary sagging south. The lake breeze might end up being a focus for shower/storm development each afternoon as well. Overall, it will be a putzy pattern with lightning as the only hazardous weather potential. On Wednesday, a little stronger shortwave trough will swing down through WI. The leading edge of this should trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. That trough is expected to stall over the Upper Great Lakes and our stagnant pattern will continue into the first part of the next weekend. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 There are some clouds with bases around 3500 ft hugging the shoreline of southeast WI early this morning where there is convergence between diminishing NE winds off the lake and a NW land breeze. Expect a lake breeze today, with a higher concentration of diurnal cumulus clouds along it than inland areas. Cloud bases should be around 5000 ft today. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 There was an extra push of gusty northerly winds last evening that are diminishing from north to south over the south half of LM this morning. Waves responded to these winds overnight but with the diminishing winds (and backing) in the nearshore, I canceled the Small Craft Advisory for Sheboygan to Port Washington. The waves will continue to subside in the southern three zones through mid morning, so the S.C.A. remains in effect until 10 AM. An expanding area of high pressure will be centered over the Upper Midwest through tonight, slowly shifting east over Lake Michigan Friday. Light to moderate west to southwest winds are then expected Friday into Saturday. Quiet weather and no rain is expected through Saturday afternoon as well, with a slight chance for showers returning to the northern end of Lake Michigan Saturday evening. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee