788
FXUS63 KMKX 071516 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms at times into tonight.

- Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and
  thunderstorms through the middle to end of the week.

- Increasing potential for above average temperatures heading
  into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The southwesterly low level jet will develop into this
afternoon and ramp up tonight, pointing into the forecast area.
Some weak warm air advection and differential CVA from passing
vorticity maxima are also expected. These features should help
generate mainly scattered showers and storms at times, which is
generally depicted by the CAMs. The most areal coverage should
be tonight, when the low level jet is at its strongest. Forecast
soundings are showing 500 to 900 J/kg of mean layer CAPE with
deep layer bulk shear of 20 to 25 knots into early this evening,
with values slowly lowering later tonight. Not expecting strong
to severe storms given this setup.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today through Monday:

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push into south central
Wisconsin early this morning, associated with a
shortwave/remnant MCV moving in from Iowa. This activity may
become more scattered in nature by late morning and early
afternoon as it progresses eastward into a drier environment.

It seems probable that we will see a decrease in
rain/thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon, before activity
expands in coverage this evening and tonight as increased flow
at 850 MB provides enhanced ascent across the region. Overall,
expect showers and storms to remain fairly unorganized and
scattered in nature through tonight.

Shortwave energy will continue to move across the region on
Monday, as a very weak front approaches from the west. This will
serve as a focus for additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the day.

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

By Tuesday, the remains of TS Beryl are expected to be lifting
northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Depending on how far
north the remains move, we may see some tropical moisture make
it into far southeastern Wisconsin Tuesday night and Wednesday,
but there is quite a bit of uncertainty at this distance.
Shower/thunderstorm chances persist into at least Thursday as
troughing remains in place across the western Great Lakes.
Temperatures during this stretch look to be around average, with
upper 70s and low 80s for highs.

Extended guidance suggests that the ridge will begin to build
across the Central Plains as we approach the weekend. This
would favor temperatures rising above average in the Day 6/7
timeframe.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Expecting mainly scattered showers and storms at times into this
afternoon and tonight across area terminals, perhaps lingering
into Monday morning. Locally reduced visibility and ceilings are
possible in any storms. Otherwise, mainly middle to high clouds
should move through today into Monday morning, though there may
be some diurnal cumulus that develops this afternoon.

South to southwest winds this afternoon are expected, shifting
southeast for terminals near the lake this afternoon. Light
winds tonight will become southwest on Monday, then west later
Monday as a wind shift moves through. This feature may also
bring more showers and storms Monday afternoon and early
evening. May see light fog in the typical low lying areas
overnight into Monday morning.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure around 30.0 inches over Lake Erie will gradually
push into the Saint Lawrence River Valley through Monday,
resulting in primarily light southerly winds across the open
waters.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for the nearshore waters north of Port Washington. Some dense
fog may linger near the western shore of the lake during this
time.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times tonight into
Monday morning. A cold front will approach the open waters
Monday night, resulting in a wind shift out of the west by
sunrise Tuesday morning.

Later Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a potential for stronger
winds over the southern portion of the lake, depending on the
eventual track of the remains of Tropical Storm Beryl, which may
track across central and north central Indiana. This potential
will be updated in later forecasts.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ643 until 4 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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