508
FXUS62 KMHX 131110
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled across the region through
today with moist southerly flow bringing periods of rain. The
front will dissipate early next week with hot and humid
conditions and heat indices in excess of 105 degrees returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 710 AM Sat...No big changes with am update.

Prev disc...As of 4 AM Sat...Front remains stalled to our west
today with sct to numerous showers and occasional thunderstorms.
Moisture transport will be weaker today as low- level flow
veers more southwesterly than south, and CAMs are advertising a
more typical summertime regime with scattered convection
developing along the front in the afternoon and weakening around
sunset. The airmass itself changes little as PWATs continue to
sit north of 2", so a torrential rainfall risk continues for yet
another day, though the lesser coverage will preclude any
additional flood watches. Still may see some localized flooding
where some heavier showers and storms set up. Widespread cloud
cover will keep highs in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Showers come to an end quickly with loss of
diurnal heating, and a mainly dry fcst overnight. Can`t rule out
some sct showers along the coast, esp OBX, with some thunder
possible as well, though bulk of the region will be dry. Warm
and very muggy with lows in the mid/upr 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...

-Sunday will begin a period of drier weather and hot and humid
conditions. Sunday through Wednesday heat indices of 105-110 degrees
are possible each day. Tuesday expected to be the hottest day. Some
relief for the end of the week.

-Wet again for the back half of the week as rain chances begin to
ramp up on Wednesday and remain high through Friday.

Beginning Sunday extreme heat will become the biggest threat in the
forecast. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will push or
exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except the extreme
coastal areas. At this point, Tuesday looks like the hottest day
with heat index values approaching 110 degrees which is excessive
heat warning criteria.

More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this
time as solutions are starting to settle on a front moving into
eastern NC and stalling for the back end of the week and into next
weekend. PW values return to greater than 2 inches on Wednesday and
remain there through the forecast period. The greatest instability
will be on Wednesday when the combination of still higher
temperatures and increased moisture yields surface based CAPE Values
between 1000-2000 J/Kg. Shear however will be lacking so any thunder
will be instability driven. After Wednesday temperatures cool enough
to reduce CAPE values some and shear remains weak. Therefore once
again heavy rain will be the greatest threat during this period.
Temps during this time will moderate into the mid 80s to near 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sat/...
As of 7 AM Sat... CIGs have been bouncing between IFR/MVFR/VFR,
with the lowest cigs more apt across KISO and KPGV, where we
forecast these conditions into the morning. Ocnl showers will
bring vsbys down briefly through today. Can`t rule out some
embedded thunder, though not enough covg to include in the
forecast at this time. Will have to monitor for tempo upgrades
later.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wed/...
A drier period for much of the aviation long term with
predominately VFR conditions. Exceptions to this could be with
overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10
kts through much of the period. Rain chances will increase on
Wednesday and along with it the chance for sub-VFR periods.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Sswrly flow of 15-25 kt this morning will
diminish to below SCA, with seas following suite, by late
afternoon, and thus ended SCA`s by 21z. Sct showers and storms
will cont today, becoming more iso tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine conditions
with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. For the
coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much of
the long term before rising to 5 feet near the end of the week. Rain
chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135-
     152-154-156-158-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/TL
MARINE...RTE/TL