683
FXUS62 KMHX 082245
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
through midweek before the next front approaches and interacts
with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased
precipitation chances late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
As of 645 PM Mon...Diurnal showers are already waning. Very
little lightning observed this afternoon due to lack of any
appreaciable forcing and virtually no shear, and don`t really
expect any additional storms other than an isolated storm
forming on a remnant outflow bndry through the next hour or two
before dry conditions rest of the night.

Prev disc...As of 320 PM Monday...As earlier expected coverage
of showers and thunderstorms is considerably less than the
previous 2 days due to subsidence. Lack of shear should keep
storms pulse in nature with locally heavy rains the main threat.
The showers and storms will be diminishing rapidly around 00Z
with the loss of heating with the remainder of the night
expected to be mainly dry. Exception will be along the immediate
coast where isolated convective activity will be possible due
to nocturnal gulfstream showers trying to migrate north toward
the coast.

Very muggy conditions persist overnight with lows generally in
the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM Monday...Once again expecting scattered
afternoon/early evening showers and storms Tuesday. Shear
remains weak as well as forcing which will limit severe threat
and coverage. There will a slight gradient in PW from west
(highest) to east (lowest) so best coverage of storms should be
in the west in the axis of higher PWs.

It will be continued hot with highs inland mostly in the low
90s. It doesn`t look like dewpoints will mix out much in the
afternoon, thus Heat Index values could briefly reach 105
degrees for an hour or two in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Typical summertime pattern expected
through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week
and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler
late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each
afternoon through mid week.

Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the
upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven
showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect
convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with
better chances for more widespread coverage late week into the
weekend. Another front will approach late week into the weekend,
possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it
then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of
Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance for sea breeze
related convection through Wednesday, but continued the
increasing PoP trend for Thursday and Friday with Likelies in
the forecast. At this time it looks like the lack of shear
should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the
period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this
could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead
to minor flooding concerns as storm motions are expected to be
relatively slow, particularly through Wednesday. Temps look to
be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 645 PM Monday...Generally VFR conditions with light winds
expectedNot seeing much of a signal for significant fog and
clouds in the guidance for overnight, though with KEWN reporting
rain today, may be some patchy fg here overnight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through
the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 320 PM Monday...High pressure off the coast will continue
to produce S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt across the waters with seas
2-4 ft through Tuesday with the strongest winds in the
afternoon and evenings.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Overall pleasant boating conditions
expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern
continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...MS/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ