723
FXUS62 KMHX 091129
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
729 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
through midweek before the next front approaches and interacts
with deep moisture lifting off the Southeast coast bringing
increased precipitation chances late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...The overall pattern has changed little
over the past few days with upper ridging centered over the
western Atlantic ridging into the area. The upper cut-off low
that has been quasi-stationary well off the Southeast coast is
now slowly moving southward and weakening. The Bermuda high will
continue to bring deep moisture rich southerly flow across the
region with PW values around 2-2.5". Expect scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms to develop once again this afternoon
with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg through peak heating. Weak
subsidence and limited shear will aid in limiting coverage and
strength of storms. It will be another sultry day across the
region with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temps peaking the low
to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast resulting
in heat indices around 100-103 degrees this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to dominate
across the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
dissipate early in the evening with loss of heating and expect
mainly dry conditions overnight. Another warm and muggy night
with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY POINTS:

-Typical summertime pattern expected Wednesday With warm temps and
Chc PoPs along the sea breeze.

-Rainy end to the week, likely heavy at times with localized
flooding possible. Friday afternoon/evening is of greatest concern
for flash flooding at this point. Low severe threat.

-Warm temps continue, with Heat Indices near or just above 100F
every day outside of Friday.


Wednesday: The remnants of Beryl move into the Mid-west, strong
Bermuda high keeps is in a southerly flow regime,and a upper level
low continues to meander offshore. As Beryl continues to move
northward well to our west, it interacts with the Bermuda high to
our east and forms a pinched pressure gradient. This pressure
gradient breaks apart the weak upper level low offshore, and the
resultant shortwave accelerates northward along the pinched
gradient. This will be the start of a train of shortwaves and weak
lows moving through the region along the western periphery of the
Bermuda high through the long term. Inland troughing on Wednesday
provides enough forcing for convection, primarily west of hwy 17.
Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered, and as a result
have kept PoPs generally below 50%, highest for the coastal plain.
Weak shear environment continues, and with little to no upper level
support, severe threat remains low. It is worth noting however that
PWATs continue to be above 2", and any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are capable of producing torrential downpours and
localized minor flooding. Further to our west, cold front associated
with remnants of Beryl enters the Piedmont region of NC. Wednesday
night.

Thursday: Cold front stalls along the coastal plain Thursday as
southerly flow and resultant moisture advection from the pinched
gradient continues. Continued moisture advection, CAPEs in the 1-
2J/kg range, and the forcing from the stalled boundary will result in
scattered to numerous showers primarily along and west of hwy 17.
Continued the increasing trend for PoPS on Thursday, with the
coastal plain now near 70% chances and much of the CWA firmly in the
"likely" category. Once again, severe threat remains low, but high
PWATs and training storms could result in localized flooding
concerns. While precip is focused along the boundary, further to our
south another shortwave/weak low rides along the Bermuda high,
reaching offshore of FL/SC/GA by the end of the day. Highs in the
low 90s inland, upper 80s along the coast.

Friday: Stationary front continues to linger in the coastal plain,
but now the shortwave well to our south Thursday reaches ENC. This
will provide additional forcing in addition to the stalled boundary,
and as a result we are expecting a continuous stream of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Have continued
to increase PoPs for Friday, and introduced categorical PoPs with
this update. Capped in at 75% for now, but if things continue to
trend upward, so will the PoPs. WPC has highlighted ENC in the
"Slight" (at least 15%) risk of flash flooding in their Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for Friday. While the entire region is under the
Slight, along and west of hwy 17 continues to be the area of
greatest concern due to the prior rainfall. Drought conditions will
likely be improved substantially by the end of the week. Severe
potential continues to be low with very little 0-6km shear. Friday
will be the (relatively) coolest day of the long term, with highs in
the mid 80s.

The Weekend: Weak zonal flow sets up in upper levels as the high to
our east slides a bit further south. The high coverage rainfall will
be generally out of the region by Saturday morning, although OBX
could see some lingering showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. In
the daytime, stalled frontal system along the coastal plain
continues to be an area of focus for increased shower and
thunderstorm coverage through the weekend. After the brief cool down
Friday, we jump back up to highs in the low 90s Saturday, mid 90s
Sunday.

Early Next Week: PoPs go back to climo with sea breeze convection,
and temps continue to be in the mid 90s inland, upper 80s for
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 725 AM Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected though
the TAF period. Could see brief MVFR cigs this morning as
clouds develop with daytime heating. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon bringing
occasional periods of sub VFR condition. Guidance showing higher
probs (>50% chance) for stratus development late tonight into
Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Wednesday is another typical summertime
day with convection expected along and ahead of the sea breeze,
particularly along and west of hwy 17. Low ceilings and
visibilities Thursday- Saturday with multiple rounds of
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Early next week
we transition back to a typical summertime pattern with
afternoon and evening T-storms along and ahead of the sea
breeze. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 320 PM Monday...High pressure off the coast will continue
to produce S to SW winds around 15 kt or less across the waters
with seas 2-4 ft with the strongest winds in the afternoon and
evenings.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Typical summertime pattern continues with high
pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW
winds 5-15 kt, gusting to 20 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with gusts of 25+
knots possible with seas building to 3-5 ft and some 6 footers near
the Gulf Stream. SCA conditions possible across the waters Thursday-
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ