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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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620 FXUS62 KMHX 100928 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 528 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues off the coast while the remnants of Beryl lifts across the eastern Great Lakes and a trailing cold front approaches from the west today. The front will become stalled across the region Thursday through the weekend with moist southerly flow bringing periods of heavy rain. The front will dissipate early next week with hot temps and the potential to heat indices in excess of 105 degrees returning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 4 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Heat indices will peak around 100-105 across much of the region this afternoon. 2) Scattered showers along the coast this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain this afternoon. Upper ridging off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to extend into the area today while an upper trough resides over the Mid West. At the surface, the Bermuda high remains dominant across the western Atlantic while the remnants of TC Beryl currently centered over IN will lift into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will slowly move across the piedmont through the day. Warm and moist conditions prevail across the region this morning with weak mid level troughing bringing isolated to scattered showers across coastal sections of the FA this morning. Focus will shift inland late morning through the afternoon as instability increases. Heavy rain continues to be the main threat from showers/storms with PW values around 2.25". MLCAPES peak around 1500 J/kg with moist adiabatic sounding profiles will limit the severe threat but heavier showers could bring brief gusty winds. The heat continues across the region with high reaching the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will peak around 100-105 across much of the area this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Showers expected to wane during the evening with loss of sfc heating. However, the cold front will continue to approach the area overnight moving into western sections toward daybreak with shower activity ramping up as low level convergence increases. The threat for locally heavy rain continues with PW values increasing to around 2.5". Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s inland to around 80 coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: -Very wet period expected Thursday through the weekend, with heavy rain chances likely (70-80%) at times with localized flooding possible. Severe threat remains relatively low at this time. -Warm temps continue, with Heat Indices near or just above 100F every day outside of Friday. Starting on Monday heat indices of 105- 110 degrees are possible. Wet and warm will be the story for the long term forecast as the remnants of Beryl move into the northeastern US with a frontal system extending southward into the Carolinas that becomes nearly stationary for the end of the week through the weekend. This feature will remain between high pressure offshore and lower pressure to the north and west. This pattern will facilitate extremely efficient moisture transport off of the Atlantic over the Carolinas. This is highlighted by the ECMWF extreme forecast index which is showing anomalously high precipitation values over the Carolinas. In addition model soundings show PW values approaching 2.5 inches at times. This has resulted in WPC initiating a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday and a slight risk for Friday. Highest rainfall totals for the next seven days could top out in the 4-5 inch range, which would be a positive for the areas of the state currently experiencing drought but at the same time could bring flooding chances to some areas. While there will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day, the chances for severe weather remain underwhelming. While there will certainly be enough moisture and instability to initiate convection, shear values are lacking. Thus the heavy rain is the primary threat during this time period. Not to be overlooked in the long term is the threat for extreme heat, particularly beginning on Sunday through the end of the forecast period. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will push or exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except the extreme coastal areas. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Currently seeing pred VFR inland with a few showers along the coast bringing MVFR conditions. Plenty of low level moisture in place and guidance developing MVFR cigs across inland rtes this morning as well. Cigs should lift to VFR late morning with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing inland bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. A front will approach rtes late tonight with precip chances increasing after midnight with MVFR conditions developing across most rtes. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...For thursday and beyond expect sub optimal aviation conditions as a very wet period begins across eastern NC. Precipitation may be heavy at times affecting ceilings and visibilities during the heaviest rainfall and overnight periods. Rain is expected to continue through the weekend before relenting early next week. Thunderstorms are also possible during this time, particularly in the afternoons but severe weather is unlikely. Winds will keep a southerly component at 5-10 knots gusting to 15 kts. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Bermuda high pressure remains offshore with a slow moving cold front approaching the waters from the west. Southerly winds will continue across the waters, mainly around 10-15 kt this morning but locally up to 20 kt across the Pamlico Sound and offshore waters. Wind increase to 15-20 kt across all waters this afternoon though tonight as gradients tighten with the approaching front. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft with some 5 ft seas possible late in the period. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Chances for small craft advisory across the central and southern waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday with wind gusts approaching 25 kts and seas near 6 ft possible. Waves and winds will begin to relax on Saturday but heavy rain is likely through the weekend before marine conditions begin to mellow for early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...RTE/SK MARINE...RTE/SK