818
FXUS62 KMHX 101310
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
910 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues off the coast while the remnants of
Beryl lifts across the eastern Great Lakes and a trailing cold
front approaches from the west today. The front will become
stalled across the region Thursday through the weekend with
moist southerly flow bringing periods of heavy rain. The front
will dissipate early next week with hot temps and the potential
to heat indices in excess of 105 degrees returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 910 AM Wednesday... Key Messages:
1) Heat indices will peak around 100-105 across much of the
region this afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most
counties inland from the coast.

2) Scattered showers along the coast this morning with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain
this afternoon.

No changes to previous thinking. Upper ridging off the Mid-
Atlantic coast continues to extend into the area today while an
upper trough resides over the Mid West. At the surface, the
Bermuda high remains dominant across the western Atlantic while
the remnants of TC Beryl currently centered over IN will lift
into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front from
Beryl`s remnants will slowly move across the piedmont through
the day.

Warm and moist conditions prevail across the region this
morning with weak mid level troughing producing isolated to
scattered showers across coastal sections of the FA this
morning. Focus will shift inland late morning through the
afternoon as instability increases. Heavy rain continues to be
the main threat from showers/storms with PW values around 2.25".
MLCAPES peak around 1500 J/kg with moist adiabatic sounding
profiles will limit the severe threat but heavier showers could
bring brief gusty winds.

The heat continues across the region with high reaching the low
to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat
indices will peak around 100-105 across much of the area this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Showers expected to wane during the
evening with loss of sfc heating. However, the cold front will
continue to approach the area overnight moving into western
sections toward daybreak with shower activity ramping up as low
level convergence increases. The threat for locally heavy rain
continues with PW values increasing to around 2.5". Lows will be
in the mid to upper 70s inland to around 80 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Very wet period expected Thursday through the weekend, with heavy
rain chances likely (70-80%) at times with localized flooding
possible. Severe threat remains relatively low at this time.

-Warm temps continue, with Heat Indices near or just above 100F
every day outside of Friday. Starting on Monday heat indices of 105-
110 degrees are possible.

Wet and warm will be the story for the long term forecast as the
remnants of Beryl move into the northeastern US with a frontal
system extending southward into the Carolinas that becomes
nearly stationary for the end of the week through the weekend.
This feature will remain between high pressure offshore and
lower pressure to the north and west. This pattern will
facilitate extremely efficient moisture transport off of the
Atlantic over the Carolinas. This is highlighted by the ECMWF
extreme forecast index which is showing anomalously high
precipitation values over the Carolinas. In addition model
soundings show PW values approaching 2.5 inches at times. This
has resulted in WPC initiating a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Thursday and a slight risk for Friday. Highest
rainfall totals for the next seven days could top out in the 4-5
inch range, which would be a positive for the areas of the
state currently experiencing drought but at the same time could
bring flooding chances to some areas.

While there will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day, the
chances for severe weather remain underwhelming. While there will
certainly be enough moisture and instability to initiate
convection, shear values are lacking. Thus the heavy rain is the
primary threat during this time period.

Not to be overlooked in the long term is the threat for extreme
heat, particularly beginning on Sunday through the end of the
forecast period. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
inland with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values
will push or exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except
the extreme coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...Mix of MVFR and VFR across rtes this
morning with isolated to scattered showers near the coast.
Plenty of low level moisture in place and guidance suggesting a
period pred MVFR cigs across most rtes this morning. Cigs
should lift to VFR late morning with isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing inland bringing occasional sub-VFR
conditions. A front will approach rtes late tonight with precip
chances increasing after midnight with MVFR conditions
developing across most rtes.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...For thursday and beyond expect sub
optimal aviation conditions as a very wet period begins across
eastern NC. Precipitation may be heavy at times affecting
ceilings and visibilities during the heaviest rainfall and
overnight periods. Rain is expected to continue through the
weekend before relenting early next week. Thunderstorms are also
possible during this time, particularly in the afternoons but
severe weather is unlikely. Winds will keep a southerly
component at 5-10 knots gusting to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 910 AM Wednesday...No changes to previous thinking..
Bermuda high pressure remains offshore with a slow moving cold
front approaching the waters from the west. Southerly winds will
continue across the waters, mainly around 10-15 kt this morning
but locally up to 20 kt across the Pamlico Sound and offshore
waters. Wind increase to 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt
across all waters this afternoon though tonight as gradients
tighten with the approaching front. Seas will continue around
2-4 ft with some 5 ft seas possible late in the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Chances for small craft advisory
across the central and southern waters Thursday afternoon
through Saturday with wind gusts approaching 25 kts and seas
near 6 ft possible. Waves and winds will begin to relax on
Saturday but heavy rain is likely through the weekend before
marine conditions begin to mellow for early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/JME/SK