399
FXUS62 KMHX 141949
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
349 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices in
excess of 105 degrees last into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Weakening front lingers in central NC
producing showers and tstorms west of us and sea breeze is
making its way inland with isolated, short lived showers popping
up along and behind it. As the sea breeze advances inland, so
will the chances for rain, although with west/southwesterly flow
it will struggle to get past New Bern and Richlands. Storms
initiation to our west, ahead of the stalled front will slowly
be propagating into western portions of the CWA over the next
couple hours. MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and PWATs of
1.8-2" provide enough instability and moisture for isolated to
scattered showers/tstorms along any boundary, whether it be the
sea breeze or an outflow from another storm. With limited shear
the showers will be collapsing just as quickly as they initiate
as is typical this time of the year. With DCAPEs near 1000 J/kg,
the potential for strong gusts exists, but the fleeting nature
of the storms should prevent sufficient cores from building up.

The other noteworthy impacts today are the heat. Heat indices
are between 105-108 for much of the inland areas, although the
recently initiated convection will help cool things a notch in
spots that receive rain. The current heat advisory in effect
will end at 7 PM today.

Tonight will be warm and muggy yet again, with lows in the mid
70s inland, near 80 for beaches. Of particular note is the heat
indices expected along the coast, ranging between 85-95 degrees
tonight into early tomorrow morning, providing little relief
before we experience even warmer temps tomorrow. Precip will
quickly fall apart after sunset, with some scattered showers
offshore of OBX and a slight chance of them encroaching onshore.
Fog will be possible for Duplin and Onslow counties, but will
be patchy in nature and confidence remains low.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Another hot and humid day in store,
likely a few degrees warmer than what was experienced today as
heat indices flirt with 110 degrees. Heat advisory has been
issued for the entire CWA outside of coastal Dare and Hyde
counties where indices are in the 100-105 range. Another day of
high PWATs and ample instability will promote scattered showers
along the sea breeze, but just like today limited shear will
result in a low severe risk.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sun...First part of the long term will be highlighted
by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices
between 105-115 degrees through mid week. Then, a cold front
moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and
storms Wednesday into the end of the week.

Monday night through Tuesday...Extreme heat will become the
biggest threat for the beginning of the work week. Highs will be
in the mid to some upper 90s interior, with around 90 coast.
These temps combined with dewpoints between 75-80 will lead to
dangerously high heat indices, with advisory criteria likely
being met, though several hours of 110-115 degrees (excessive
heat warning criteria) are possible as well.

Wednesday through Saturday...More certainty for the back end of
the week than last night at this time as 14/00Z model suite
settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid
through late week. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on
Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the
weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability
will be high Wed through Fri (2000-4000 J/Kg), but shear very
weak, so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet
microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The
good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end
to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu in the
60% range, and capped at 50% for Fri into the weekend until
mesoscale details become more clear, though it does appear pops
will be above climo into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 18z Monday/...
As of 340 PM Sunday...Generally VFR, although terminals within
the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening can expect brief drops in VIS and CIGs. Although strong
wind shear is lacking to support severe thunderstorms, there is
enough instability in the atmosphere to support some strong
storms capable of producing lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. The overnight hours will generally be VFR, although
OAJ could see drops to sub-VFR VIS between 9-12Z since the
Duplin/inland Onslow region fogs up more easily. Low stratus
will likely remain offshore Monday morning, but trends will have
to be monitored in case it progresses further inland and
impacts the coastal terminals.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers
and storms for Mon and Tue, become more numerous Wed through
the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight
fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts through
much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...Generally quiet marine conditions persist
through the short term. Seas are currently 2-4 feet, becoming
3-4 Monday afternoon. Winds are currently coming from the SW at
10-15 kts, but will pick up tomorrow afternoon/evening, gusting
to 20-25 kts at times for coastal waters and the
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Probability of gusts in excess
of 25 knots remains low for Monday evening, and as a result have
not issued a SCA with this update.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine
conditions with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts. Thermal gradient could bring some 25+ kt winds for the
favored areas (Oregon Inlet/Croatan-Roanoke-Pamlico Sounds and
Alligator River) by Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the
coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much
of the long term before rising to 5 feet by midweek. Rain and
storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ