499
FXUS62 KMHX 080821
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
421 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
through midweek before the next front approaches and interacts
with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased
precipitation chances late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Little change in the overall pattern
across the region is leading to a persistence forecast today.
ENC remains in somewhat of a col with upper ridging centered
across FL/GA and well off the Mid-Atlantic coast while a quasi
stationary upper low is centered off the Southeast Coast and an
upper trough is digging across the Mid West and Great Lakes.

Seeing quite a few showers and storms offshore near the Gulf
Stream early this morning with isolated showers beginning to
develop over the Pamlico Sound and just east of Hatteras Island.
Precip will mainly be confined to this area into mid morning
but a line of showers is beginning to develop to the south
across Brunswick and Columbus counties that could lift into
Duplin Co after daybreak. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop late morning through the afternoon with daytime
heating, initiating along the sea breeze and other lingering
boundaries across the region. The airmass remains very moist
with PW values around 2.25" which could lead to locally heavy
rainfall once again aided by slow storm motion. The severe
threat is limited with very little shear and moist adiabatic
sounding profiles with MLCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg.

Temps will be quite oppressive with dewpoints remaining in the
mid 70s. Low level thicknesses have changed little from
yesterday and expect highs inland in the lower 90s and mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out around 100
degrees.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate
across inland areas through the evening with loss of heating
but are expected to continue off the coast near the Gulf Stream.
Very muggy conditions persist with lows generally in the mid
70s

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Typical summertime pattern expected
through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week
and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler
late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each
afternoon through mid week.

Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the
upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven
showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect
convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with
better chances for more widespread coverage late week into the
weekend. Another front will approach late week into the weekend,
possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it
then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of
Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance for sea breeze
related convection through Wednesday, but continued the
increasing PoP trend for Thursday and Friday with Likelies in
the forecast. At this time it looks like the lack of shear
should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the
period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this
could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead
to minor flooding concerns as storm motions are expected to be
relatively slow, particularly through Wednesday. Temps look to
be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Generally VFR conditions early this
morning but seeing some shallow nuisance fog mainly across
southwest rtes bringing occasional MVFR conditions, which could
briefly drop to IFR during the pre-dawn hours, however
operational impacts will likely be minimal. Could also see
occasional MVFR cigs through the morning as LCLs rise with a
very moist airmass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop across rtes late this morning through the
afternoon which will bring occasional sub-VFR conditions as
well. Storms will dissipate through the evening with loss of
heating but could see shallow fog develop across portions of the
area overnight once again.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through
the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 415 AM Monday...High pressure off the coast will bring S
to SW winds generally less than 15 kt across the waters with
seas around 2-4 ft through the short term.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Overall pleasant boating conditions
expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern
continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ